Heart

In the past few weeks, sea-surface temperatures in some parts of the North Atlantic Ocean have soared to record heights.

The anomalous warming is occurring in a large swath stretching almost one-third of the way across the Atlantic westward from the northwestern coast of Africa. Satellite data reveal that some surface waters in the area are almost 4 degrees Celsius (about 7 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal for this time of the year, says Brian McNoldy, a meteorologist at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Fla.

.email-conversion {
border: 1px solid #ffcccb;
color: white;
margin-top: 50px;
background-image: url(“/wp-content/themes/sciencenews/client/src/images/cta-module@2x.jpg”);
padding: 20px;
clear: both;
}

.zephr-registration-form{max-width:440px;margin:20px auto;padding:20px;background-color:#fff;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form *{box-sizing:border-box}.zephr-registration-form-text > *{color:var(–zephr-color-text-main)}.zephr-registration-form-relative-container{position:relative}.zephr-registration-form-flex-container{display:flex}.zephr-registration-form-input.svelte-blfh8x{display:block;width:100%;height:calc(var(–zephr-input-height) * 1px);padding-left:8px;font-size:16px;border:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-input-borderColor);border-radius:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderRadius) * 1px);transition:border-color 0.25s ease, box-shadow 0.25s ease;outline:0;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);background-color:#fff;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input.svelte-blfh8x::placeholder{color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input-checkbox.svelte-blfh8x{width:auto;height:auto;margin:8px 5px 0 0;float:left}.zephr-registration-form-input-radio.svelte-blfh8x{position:absolute;opacity:0;cursor:pointer;height:0;width:0}.zephr-registration-form-input-color[type=”color”].svelte-blfh8x{width:50px;padding:0;border-radius:50%}.zephr-registration-form-input-color[type=”color”].svelte-blfh8x::-webkit-color-swatch{border:none;border-radius:50%;padding:0}.zephr-registration-form-input-color[type=”color”].svelte-blfh8x::-webkit-color-swatch-wrapper{border:none;border-radius:50%;padding:0}.zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x,.zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x:hover{border:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-input-borderColor);background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input.error.svelte-blfh8x{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-input-label.svelte-1ok5fdj.svelte-1ok5fdj{margin-top:10px;display:block;line-height:30px;font-size:12px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input-label.svelte-1ok5fdj span.svelte-1ok5fdj{display:block}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9{height:calc(var(–zephr-button-height) * 1px);line-height:0;padding:0 20px;text-decoration:none;text-transform:capitalize;text-align:center;border-radius:calc(var(–zephr-button-borderRadius) * 1px);font-size:calc(var(–zephr-button-fontSize) * 1px);font-weight:normal;cursor:pointer;border-style:solid;border-width:calc(var(–zephr-button-borderWidth) * 1px);border-color:var(–zephr-color-action-tinted);transition:backdrop-filter 0.2s, background-color 0.2s;margin-top:20px;display:block;width:100%;background-color:var(–zephr-color-action-main);color:#fff;position:relative;overflow:hidden;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:hover{background-color:var(–zephr-color-action-tinted);border-color:var(–zephr-color-action-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:disabled{background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:disabled:hover{background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5{font-size:19px;text-align:center;margin:20px auto;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-divider-container.svelte-mk4m8o{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;margin:40px 0}.zephr-registration-form-divider-line.svelte-mk4m8o{height:1px;width:50%;margin:0 5px;background-color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);;}.zephr-registration-form-divider-text.svelte-mk4m8o{margin:0 12px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);font-size:14px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);white-space:nowrap}.zephr-registration-form-input-inner-text.svelte-lvlpcn{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:10px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-response-message.svelte-179421u{text-align:center;padding:10px 30px;border-radius:5px;font-size:15px;margin-top:10px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-response-message-title.svelte-179421u{font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:10px}.zephr-registration-form-response-message-success.svelte-179421u{background-color:#baecbb;border:1px solid #00bc05}.zephr-registration-form-response-message-error.svelte-179421u{background-color:#fcdbec;border:1px solid #d90c00}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in.svelte-gp4ky7{align-items:center}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in-button.svelte-gp4ky7{height:55px;padding:0 15px;color:#000;background-color:#fff;box-shadow:0px 0px 5px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-radius:10px;font-size:17px;display:flex;align-items:center;cursor:pointer;margin-top:20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in-button.svelte-gp4ky7:hover{background-color:#fafafa}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in-icon.svelte-gp4ky7{display:flex;justify-content:center;margin-right:30px;width:25px}.zephr-form-link-message.svelte-rt4jae{margin:10px 0 10px 20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-recaptcha-tcs.svelte-1wyy3bx{margin:20px 0 0 0;font-size:15px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-recaptcha-inline.svelte-1wyy3bx{margin:20px 0 0 0}.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl{width:100%;border:0;border-radius:20px;margin-top:10px}.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl::-webkit-progress-bar{background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border:0;border-radius:20px}.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl::-webkit-progress-value{background-color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);border:0;border-radius:20px}.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl{margin:auto;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-size:12px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl:first-child{margin-left:0}.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl:last-child{margin-right:0}.zephr-registration-form-input-error-text.svelte-19a73pq{color:var(–zephr-color-warning-main);font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.svelte-19a73pq{display:block;appearance:auto;width:100%;height:calc(var(–zephr-input-height) * 1px);font-size:16px;border:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-color-text-main);border-radius:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderRadius) * 1px);transition:border-color 0.25s ease, box-shadow 0.25s ease;outline:0;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);background-color:#fff;padding:10px}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.disabled.svelte-19a73pq{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.unselected.svelte-19a73pq{color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.error.svelte-19a73pq{border-color:var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-input-textarea.svelte-19a73pq{background-color:#fff;border:1px solid #ddd;color:#222;font-size:14px;font-weight:300;padding:16px;width:100%}.zephr-registration-form-input-slider-output.svelte-19a73pq{margin:13px 0 0 10px}.zephr-registration-form-input-inner-text.svelte-lvlpcn{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:10px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.spin.svelte-1cj2gr0{animation:svelte-1cj2gr0-spin 2s 0s infinite linear}.pulse.svelte-1cj2gr0{animation:svelte-1cj2gr0-spin 1s infinite steps(8)}@keyframes svelte-1cj2gr0-spin{0%{transform:rotate(0deg)}100%{transform:rotate(360deg)}}.zephr-registration-form-checkbox.svelte-1gzpw2y{position:absolute;opacity:0;cursor:pointer;height:0;width:0}.zephr-registration-form-checkbox-label.svelte-1gzpw2y{display:flex;align-items:center;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.svelte-1gzpw2y{position:relative;box-sizing:border-box;height:23px;width:23px;background-color:#fff;border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-text-main);border-radius:6px;margin-right:12px;cursor:pointer}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.checked.svelte-1gzpw2y{border-color:#009fe3}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.checked.svelte-1gzpw2y:after{content:””;position:absolute;width:6px;height:13px;border:solid #009fe3;border-width:0 2px 2px 0;transform:rotate(45deg);top:3px;left:8px;box-sizing:border-box}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.disabled.svelte-1gzpw2y{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.disabled.checked.svelte-1gzpw2y:after{border:solid var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border-width:0 2px 2px 0}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.error.svelte-1gzpw2y{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-input-radio.svelte-1qn5n0t{position:absolute;opacity:0;cursor:pointer;height:0;width:0}.zephr-registration-form-radio-label.svelte-1qn5n0t{display:flex;align-items:center;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-radio-dot.svelte-1qn5n0t{position:relative;box-sizing:border-box;height:23px;width:23px;background-color:#fff;border:1px solid #ebebeb;border-radius:50%;margin-right:12px}.checked.svelte-1qn5n0t{border-color:#009fe3}.checked.svelte-1qn5n0t:after{content:””;position:absolute;width:17px;height:17px;background:#009fe3;background:linear-gradient(#009fe3, #006cb5);border-radius:50%;top:2px;left:2px}.disabled.checked.svelte-1qn5n0t:after{background:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.error.svelte-1qn5n0t{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-form-link.svelte-64wplc{margin:10px 0;color:#6ba5e9;text-decoration:underline;cursor:pointer;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-form-link-disabled.svelte-64wplc{color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);cursor:none;text-decoration:none}.zephr-registration-form-google-icon.svelte-1jnblvg{width:20px}.zephr-registration-form-password-progress.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;margin-top:10px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r{width:100%;height:4px;border-radius:2px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r:not(:first-child){margin-left:8px}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirements.svelte-d1zv9r{margin:20px 0;justify-content:center}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;align-items:center;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-size:12px;height:20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement-icon.svelte-d1zv9r{margin-right:10px;font-size:15px}.zephr-registration-form-password-progress.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;margin-top:10px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r{width:100%;height:4px;border-radius:2px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r:not(:first-child){margin-left:8px}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirements.svelte-d1zv9r{margin:20px 0;justify-content:center}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;align-items:center;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-size:12px;height:20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement-icon.svelte-d1zv9r{margin-right:10px;font-size:15px}
.zephr-registration-form {
max-width: 100%;
background-image: url(https://www.sciencenews.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/newsletter-signup-background_REV.jpg);
background-position: top 75% left 67%;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
margin: 0px auto;
margin-bottom: 4rem;
padding: 20px;
}

.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5 p {
padding-left: 10px;
padding-right: 10px;
padding-bottom: 10px;
}

.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5 h2 {
padding-top: 10px;
}

.zephr-registration-form-text h6 {
font-size: 0.8rem;
}

.zephr-registration-form h4 {
font-size: 3rem;
}

.zephr-registration-form h4 {
font-size: 1.5rem;
}

.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:hover {
background-color: #fc6a65;
border-color: #fc6a65;
width: 150px;
margin-left: auto;
margin-right: auto;
}
.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:disabled {
background-color: #e04821;
border-color: #e04821;
width: 150px;
margin-left: auto;
margin-right: auto;
}
.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9 {
background-color: #e04821;
border-color: #e04821;
width: 150px;
margin-left: auto;
margin-right: auto;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text > * {
color: #FFFFFF;
font-weight: bold
font: 25px;
background-color: rgba(10,10,10,0.7)
}
.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl {
width: 100%;
border: 0;
border-radius: 20px;
margin-top: 10px;
display: none;
}
.zephr-registration-form-response-message-title.svelte-179421u {
font-weight: bold;
margin-bottom: 10px;
display: none;
}
.zephr-registration-form-response-message-success.svelte-179421u {
background-color: #8db869;
border: 1px solid #8db869;
color: white;
margin-top: -0.2rem;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(1){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: center;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(5){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: left;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(7){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: left;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(9){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: left;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-input-label.svelte-1ok5fdj span.svelte-1ok5fdj {
display: none;
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x, .zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x:hover {
border: calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-input-borderColor);
background-color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-checkbox-label.svelte-1gzpw2y {
display: flex;
align-items: center;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
font-size: 20px;
margin-bottom: -20px;
}
.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl:first-child {
display: none;
}
.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl:last-child {
display: none;
}

“There’s been record-breaking warmth since March, but even more so now,” he says.

On June 10, for instance, the average sea-surface temperature for the portion of the Atlantic that stretches from the equator to 60 degrees north — up to southern Norway, southern Greenland and the central portions of Canada’s Hudson Bay — was 22.7° C (nearly 73° F). That’s about 1 degree C higher than the average recorded from 1991 through 2020, McNoldy notes. The previous record for the same date, 22.1° C, occurred in 2010.

Hot Atlantic

Sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in 2023 (red) have been breaking daily records since March. In this plot, the 1982–2022 daily mean temperatures have been subtracted from this year’s temperatures as well of those from 1982 to 2022 (gray).

This year’s warmer-than-normal waters might help strengthen storms that form in the eastern Atlantic and eventually spawn hurricanes, scientists say.

What’s causing the unusual warm-up isn’t clear. But here’s a rundown of several factors that might be at play.

A dearth of Sahara dust

Occasionally, vast swathes of desert dust from the Sahara waft across the ocean. They are carried by winds stirred up by a semipermanent high-pressure system dubbed the “Azores high” due to its proximity to those islands.

But lately, the Azores high has weakened and shifted southwest away from Africa. So those winds that typically pick up and transport Saharan dust westward over the North Atlantic are calmer and largely dust free, says Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania.

As a result, solar radiation that normally would be scattered back into space by the dust reaches the ocean surface, warming the dark waters (SN: 9/25/01).

If and when the trade winds strengthen, increased dust from Africa could help cool the area somewhat.

In a typical year, vast plumes of dust from the Sahara Desert (left in this satellite image of northwest Africa from 2020) block sunlight, shading and cooling the underlying ocean. This spring, a lack of dusty air has contributed to warming of the North Atlantic.NOAA

Decreased air pollution

In 2020, new emissions rules kicked in for long-haul container ships that spew sulfate-rich exhaust plumes. There’s been some speculation that less pollution could lead to more heating. With fewer plumes scattering sunlight back into space, more radiation reaches the sea surface.

But some studies suggest that the cooling effect of ship plumes may have been minor to begin with: Not only do the exhaust plumes have a short life span, the pollutants can cause natural clouds to evaporate more quickly and thus lead to warming, not cooling (SN: 2/1/21).

Global warming trends

This year marks the return of El Niño, a climate phenomenon whose hallmark is warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures along the equator west of South America. By winter, there’s a more than 4 in 5 chance that the El Niño will be either strong or moderate, according to scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

Each El Niño has its own personality (SN: 5/2/16). But in general, El Niño boosts average surface temperatures both on land and at sea worldwide, Mann says. Human-caused climate change has done the same, he notes.

But there’s still a lot of uncertainty about how current conditions may affect the coming forecast.

The unusually warm waters of the North Atlantic may tend to strengthen storm systems that later develop into tropical depressions and then hurricanes. But the El Niño that’s now developing in the equatorial Pacific may hamper their formation by strengthening winds in the upper atmosphere that can shear the tops off nascent hurricanes. How active this year’s hurricane season will be depends on which of these forces will prevail, scientists say (SN: 5/26/23).  More

Even as the thick clouds of smoke from wildfires raging in eastern Canada, which blanketed the U.S. East Coast in a dangerous orange haze, begin to dissipate, researchers are warning it’s a sign of the times.

Canada’s fire outlook will remain higher than normal for June. And on a larger scale, climate change is projected to make fire conditions more common across Canada, Russia and Alaska’s boreal forests.

The current fires were sparked by lightning in the Canadian province of Quebec; like much of Canada, parts of Quebec were abnormally dry this spring.

.email-conversion {
border: 1px solid #ffcccb;
color: white;
margin-top: 50px;
background-image: url(“/wp-content/themes/sciencenews/client/src/images/cta-module@2x.jpg”);
padding: 20px;
clear: both;
}

.zephr-registration-form{max-width:440px;margin:20px auto;padding:20px;background-color:#fff;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form *{box-sizing:border-box}.zephr-registration-form-text > *{color:var(–zephr-color-text-main)}.zephr-registration-form-relative-container{position:relative}.zephr-registration-form-flex-container{display:flex}.zephr-registration-form-input.svelte-blfh8x{display:block;width:100%;height:calc(var(–zephr-input-height) * 1px);padding-left:8px;font-size:16px;border:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-input-borderColor);border-radius:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderRadius) * 1px);transition:border-color 0.25s ease, box-shadow 0.25s ease;outline:0;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);background-color:#fff;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input.svelte-blfh8x::placeholder{color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input-checkbox.svelte-blfh8x{width:auto;height:auto;margin:8px 5px 0 0;float:left}.zephr-registration-form-input-radio.svelte-blfh8x{position:absolute;opacity:0;cursor:pointer;height:0;width:0}.zephr-registration-form-input-color[type=”color”].svelte-blfh8x{width:50px;padding:0;border-radius:50%}.zephr-registration-form-input-color[type=”color”].svelte-blfh8x::-webkit-color-swatch{border:none;border-radius:50%;padding:0}.zephr-registration-form-input-color[type=”color”].svelte-blfh8x::-webkit-color-swatch-wrapper{border:none;border-radius:50%;padding:0}.zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x,.zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x:hover{border:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-input-borderColor);background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input.error.svelte-blfh8x{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-input-label.svelte-1ok5fdj.svelte-1ok5fdj{margin-top:10px;display:block;line-height:30px;font-size:12px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input-label.svelte-1ok5fdj span.svelte-1ok5fdj{display:block}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9{height:calc(var(–zephr-button-height) * 1px);line-height:0;padding:0 20px;text-decoration:none;text-transform:capitalize;text-align:center;border-radius:calc(var(–zephr-button-borderRadius) * 1px);font-size:calc(var(–zephr-button-fontSize) * 1px);font-weight:normal;cursor:pointer;border-style:solid;border-width:calc(var(–zephr-button-borderWidth) * 1px);border-color:var(–zephr-color-action-tinted);transition:backdrop-filter 0.2s, background-color 0.2s;margin-top:20px;display:block;width:100%;background-color:var(–zephr-color-action-main);color:#fff;position:relative;overflow:hidden;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:hover{background-color:var(–zephr-color-action-tinted);border-color:var(–zephr-color-action-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:disabled{background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:disabled:hover{background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5{font-size:19px;text-align:center;margin:20px auto;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-divider-container.svelte-mk4m8o{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;margin:40px 0}.zephr-registration-form-divider-line.svelte-mk4m8o{height:1px;width:50%;margin:0 5px;background-color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);;}.zephr-registration-form-divider-text.svelte-mk4m8o{margin:0 12px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);font-size:14px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);white-space:nowrap}.zephr-registration-form-input-inner-text.svelte-lvlpcn{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:10px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-response-message.svelte-179421u{text-align:center;padding:10px 30px;border-radius:5px;font-size:15px;margin-top:10px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-response-message-title.svelte-179421u{font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:10px}.zephr-registration-form-response-message-success.svelte-179421u{background-color:#baecbb;border:1px solid #00bc05}.zephr-registration-form-response-message-error.svelte-179421u{background-color:#fcdbec;border:1px solid #d90c00}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in.svelte-gp4ky7{align-items:center}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in-button.svelte-gp4ky7{height:55px;padding:0 15px;color:#000;background-color:#fff;box-shadow:0px 0px 5px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-radius:10px;font-size:17px;display:flex;align-items:center;cursor:pointer;margin-top:20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in-button.svelte-gp4ky7:hover{background-color:#fafafa}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in-icon.svelte-gp4ky7{display:flex;justify-content:center;margin-right:30px;width:25px}.zephr-form-link-message.svelte-rt4jae{margin:10px 0 10px 20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-recaptcha-tcs.svelte-1wyy3bx{margin:20px 0 0 0;font-size:15px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-recaptcha-inline.svelte-1wyy3bx{margin:20px 0 0 0}.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl{width:100%;border:0;border-radius:20px;margin-top:10px}.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl::-webkit-progress-bar{background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border:0;border-radius:20px}.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl::-webkit-progress-value{background-color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);border:0;border-radius:20px}.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl{margin:auto;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-size:12px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl:first-child{margin-left:0}.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl:last-child{margin-right:0}.zephr-registration-form-input-error-text.svelte-19a73pq{color:var(–zephr-color-warning-main);font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.svelte-19a73pq{display:block;appearance:auto;width:100%;height:calc(var(–zephr-input-height) * 1px);font-size:16px;border:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-color-text-main);border-radius:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderRadius) * 1px);transition:border-color 0.25s ease, box-shadow 0.25s ease;outline:0;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);background-color:#fff;padding:10px}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.disabled.svelte-19a73pq{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.unselected.svelte-19a73pq{color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.error.svelte-19a73pq{border-color:var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-input-textarea.svelte-19a73pq{background-color:#fff;border:1px solid #ddd;color:#222;font-size:14px;font-weight:300;padding:16px;width:100%}.zephr-registration-form-input-slider-output.svelte-19a73pq{margin:13px 0 0 10px}.zephr-registration-form-input-inner-text.svelte-lvlpcn{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:10px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.spin.svelte-1cj2gr0{animation:svelte-1cj2gr0-spin 2s 0s infinite linear}.pulse.svelte-1cj2gr0{animation:svelte-1cj2gr0-spin 1s infinite steps(8)}@keyframes svelte-1cj2gr0-spin{0%{transform:rotate(0deg)}100%{transform:rotate(360deg)}}.zephr-registration-form-checkbox.svelte-1gzpw2y{position:absolute;opacity:0;cursor:pointer;height:0;width:0}.zephr-registration-form-checkbox-label.svelte-1gzpw2y{display:flex;align-items:center;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.svelte-1gzpw2y{position:relative;box-sizing:border-box;height:23px;width:23px;background-color:#fff;border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-text-main);border-radius:6px;margin-right:12px;cursor:pointer}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.checked.svelte-1gzpw2y{border-color:#009fe3}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.checked.svelte-1gzpw2y:after{content:””;position:absolute;width:6px;height:13px;border:solid #009fe3;border-width:0 2px 2px 0;transform:rotate(45deg);top:3px;left:8px;box-sizing:border-box}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.disabled.svelte-1gzpw2y{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.disabled.checked.svelte-1gzpw2y:after{border:solid var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border-width:0 2px 2px 0}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.error.svelte-1gzpw2y{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-input-radio.svelte-1qn5n0t{position:absolute;opacity:0;cursor:pointer;height:0;width:0}.zephr-registration-form-radio-label.svelte-1qn5n0t{display:flex;align-items:center;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-radio-dot.svelte-1qn5n0t{position:relative;box-sizing:border-box;height:23px;width:23px;background-color:#fff;border:1px solid #ebebeb;border-radius:50%;margin-right:12px}.checked.svelte-1qn5n0t{border-color:#009fe3}.checked.svelte-1qn5n0t:after{content:””;position:absolute;width:17px;height:17px;background:#009fe3;background:linear-gradient(#009fe3, #006cb5);border-radius:50%;top:2px;left:2px}.disabled.checked.svelte-1qn5n0t:after{background:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.error.svelte-1qn5n0t{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-form-link.svelte-64wplc{margin:10px 0;color:#6ba5e9;text-decoration:underline;cursor:pointer;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-form-link-disabled.svelte-64wplc{color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);cursor:none;text-decoration:none}.zephr-registration-form-google-icon.svelte-1jnblvg{width:20px}.zephr-registration-form-password-progress.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;margin-top:10px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r{width:100%;height:4px;border-radius:2px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r:not(:first-child){margin-left:8px}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirements.svelte-d1zv9r{margin:20px 0;justify-content:center}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;align-items:center;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-size:12px;height:20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement-icon.svelte-d1zv9r{margin-right:10px;font-size:15px}.zephr-registration-form-password-progress.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;margin-top:10px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r{width:100%;height:4px;border-radius:2px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r:not(:first-child){margin-left:8px}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirements.svelte-d1zv9r{margin:20px 0;justify-content:center}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;align-items:center;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-size:12px;height:20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement-icon.svelte-d1zv9r{margin-right:10px;font-size:15px}
.zephr-registration-form {
max-width: 100%;
background-image: url(/wp-content/themes/sciencenews/client/src/images/cta-module@2x.jpg);
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
margin: 0px auto;
margin-bottom: 4rem;
padding: 20px;
}

.zephr-registration-form-text h6 {
font-size: 0.8rem;
}

.zephr-registration-form h4 {
font-size: 3rem;
}

.zephr-registration-form h4 {
font-size: 1.5rem;
}

.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:hover {
background-color: #fc6a65;
border-color: #fc6a65;
width: 150px;
margin-left: auto;
margin-right: auto;
}
.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:disabled {
background-color: #e04821;
border-color: #e04821;
width: 150px;
margin-left: auto;
margin-right: auto;
}
.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9 {
background-color: #e04821;
border-color: #e04821;
width: 150px;
margin-left: auto;
margin-right: auto;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text > * {
color: #FFFFFF;
font-weight: bold
font: 25px;
}
.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl {
width: 100%;
border: 0;
border-radius: 20px;
margin-top: 10px;
display: none;
}
.zephr-registration-form-response-message-title.svelte-179421u {
font-weight: bold;
margin-bottom: 10px;
display: none;
}
.zephr-registration-form-response-message-success.svelte-179421u {
background-color: #8db869;
border: 1px solid #8db869;
color: white;
margin-top: -0.2rem;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(1){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: center;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(5){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: left;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(7){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: left;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(9){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: left;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-input-label.svelte-1ok5fdj span.svelte-1ok5fdj {
display: none;
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x, .zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x:hover {
border: calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-input-borderColor);
background-color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-checkbox-label.svelte-1gzpw2y {
display: flex;
align-items: center;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
font-size: 20px;
margin-bottom: -20px;
}

Their smoky haze has dominated headlines, prompting warnings of dangerous air pollution levels. People were urged to stay indoors as much as possible, or wear masks, to avoid inhaling the fine particulate matter. The smoke, a toxic brew of irritant gases and tiny particles, can cause asthma, respiratory and cardiovascular problems, and can exacerbate existing conditions such as diabetes and chronic lung conditions (SN: 6/17/22; SN: 9/18/20).

Wildfire-driven air pollution is all too familiar to residents of the Pacific Northwest and the U.S. West, where most of the continent’s large wildfires occur, but it’s less common in the eastern part of North America. So June’s headline-grabbing haze might be a wake-up call to East Coast policy makers about the hazards of climate change, some researchers hope.

Smoke from wildfires in Eastern Canada shrouded New York City (shown) and other cities along the U.S. East Coast in a thick haze of fine particles on June 7, leading to a Code Purple day indicating the air was very unhealthy.ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images

There’s plenty of historical precedent for that, says Nicholas Bond, state climatologist for the state of Washington, who is based in Seattle. “There were some periods when dust [from the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s] made it all the way to Washington, D.C., bringing attention to the disaster that was occurring in the Plains states,” he says.

Whether eastern Canada’s forests in particular will become more fire-prone due to climate change isn’t clear from recent simulations of future climate and fire behavior. The current fires are not necessarily a harbinger of things to come so much as a reminder of what’s already here: They’re burning in regions that are already considered at risk of fire.

Climate change is projected to boost fires across other vast swaths of boreal forest in the Northern Hemisphere. It’s already having an impact. “Wildfires in the boreal forests of Alaska burned more acres in the past 20 years” than in the previous 20 years, Bond says. How much of the forest is on fire can vary significantly from year to year; 2020 was below-average, with about 73,000 hectares burned. But the overall trend of burned area in boreal forests is expected to curve steeply upward by the middle of the century: The acreage of burned area in Alaska is projected to increase by 24 to 169 percent from 2020 to 2050.

Fire seasons in boreal forests are also expected to last longer and produce larger fires each year. Climate change may also increase the frequency of lightning strikes that spark fires such as those currently burning in Quebec — although that, too, is still uncertain.

Canada is currently fighting severe fires across the country, from coast to coast, stretching its resources thin — and the threat is expected to remain high in the coming weeks, the Canadian government reported on June 5.

That’s also true for the United States. “The Pacific Northwest is liable to be dealing with considerable smoke later this summer,” Bond says, based on a fire potential outlook report released June 1 by the U.S. National Interagency Fire Center. “For personal, selfish reasons I hope the winds do not bring the smoke our way.” More

It’s hard to know how busy this year’s Atlantic hurricane season will be, thanks to a rarely observed combination of ocean and climate conditions.

The Atlantic Ocean is in an active storm era, a yearslong period of increasing storm activity. Plus sea surface temperatures there are much higher than usual this year, which can fuel storms, Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane forecaster for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said May 25 at a news conference. But this year will also see the onset of an El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation ocean and climate pattern, which tends to suppress hurricane formation.

.email-conversion {
border: 1px solid #ffcccb;
color: white;
margin-top: 50px;
background-image: url(“/wp-content/themes/sciencenews/client/src/images/cta-module@2x.jpg”);
padding: 20px;
clear: both;
}

.zephr-registration-form{max-width:440px;margin:20px auto;padding:20px;background-color:#fff;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form *{box-sizing:border-box}.zephr-registration-form-text > *{color:var(–zephr-color-text-main)}.zephr-registration-form-relative-container{position:relative}.zephr-registration-form-flex-container{display:flex}.zephr-registration-form-input.svelte-blfh8x{display:block;width:100%;height:calc(var(–zephr-input-height) * 1px);padding-left:8px;font-size:16px;border:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-input-borderColor);border-radius:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderRadius) * 1px);transition:border-color 0.25s ease, box-shadow 0.25s ease;outline:0;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);background-color:#fff;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input.svelte-blfh8x::placeholder{color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input-checkbox.svelte-blfh8x{width:auto;height:auto;margin:8px 5px 0 0;float:left}.zephr-registration-form-input-radio.svelte-blfh8x{position:absolute;opacity:0;cursor:pointer;height:0;width:0}.zephr-registration-form-input-color[type=”color”].svelte-blfh8x{width:50px;padding:0;border-radius:50%}.zephr-registration-form-input-color[type=”color”].svelte-blfh8x::-webkit-color-swatch{border:none;border-radius:50%;padding:0}.zephr-registration-form-input-color[type=”color”].svelte-blfh8x::-webkit-color-swatch-wrapper{border:none;border-radius:50%;padding:0}.zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x,.zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x:hover{border:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-input-borderColor);background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input.error.svelte-blfh8x{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-input-label.svelte-1ok5fdj.svelte-1ok5fdj{margin-top:10px;display:block;line-height:30px;font-size:12px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input-label.svelte-1ok5fdj span.svelte-1ok5fdj{display:block}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9{height:calc(var(–zephr-button-height) * 1px);line-height:0;padding:0 20px;text-decoration:none;text-transform:capitalize;text-align:center;border-radius:calc(var(–zephr-button-borderRadius) * 1px);font-size:calc(var(–zephr-button-fontSize) * 1px);font-weight:normal;cursor:pointer;border-style:solid;border-width:calc(var(–zephr-button-borderWidth) * 1px);border-color:var(–zephr-color-action-tinted);transition:backdrop-filter 0.2s, background-color 0.2s;margin-top:20px;display:block;width:100%;background-color:var(–zephr-color-action-main);color:#fff;position:relative;overflow:hidden;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:hover{background-color:var(–zephr-color-action-tinted);border-color:var(–zephr-color-action-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:disabled{background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:disabled:hover{background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5{font-size:19px;text-align:center;margin:20px auto;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input-inner-text.svelte-lvlpcn{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:10px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-divider-container.svelte-mk4m8o{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;margin:40px 0}.zephr-registration-form-divider-line.svelte-mk4m8o{height:1px;width:50%;margin:0 5px;background-color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);;}.zephr-registration-form-divider-text.svelte-mk4m8o{margin:0 12px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);font-size:14px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);white-space:nowrap}.zephr-registration-form-response-message.svelte-179421u{text-align:center;padding:10px 30px;border-radius:5px;font-size:15px;margin-top:10px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-response-message-title.svelte-179421u{font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:10px}.zephr-registration-form-response-message-success.svelte-179421u{background-color:#baecbb;border:1px solid #00bc05}.zephr-registration-form-response-message-error.svelte-179421u{background-color:#fcdbec;border:1px solid #d90c00}.zephr-recaptcha-tcs.svelte-1wyy3bx{margin:20px 0 0 0;font-size:15px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-recaptcha-inline.svelte-1wyy3bx{margin:20px 0 0 0}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in.svelte-gp4ky7{align-items:center}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in-button.svelte-gp4ky7{height:55px;padding:0 15px;color:#000;background-color:#fff;box-shadow:0px 0px 5px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-radius:10px;font-size:17px;display:flex;align-items:center;cursor:pointer;margin-top:20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in-button.svelte-gp4ky7:hover{background-color:#fafafa}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in-icon.svelte-gp4ky7{display:flex;justify-content:center;margin-right:30px;width:25px}.zephr-form-link-message.svelte-rt4jae{margin:10px 0 10px 20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl{width:100%;border:0;border-radius:20px;margin-top:10px}.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl::-webkit-progress-bar{background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border:0;border-radius:20px}.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl::-webkit-progress-value{background-color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);border:0;border-radius:20px}.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl{margin:auto;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-size:12px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl:first-child{margin-left:0}.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl:last-child{margin-right:0}.zephr-registration-form-input-inner-text.svelte-lvlpcn{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:10px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input-error-text.svelte-19a73pq{color:var(–zephr-color-warning-main);font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.svelte-19a73pq{display:block;appearance:auto;width:100%;height:calc(var(–zephr-input-height) * 1px);font-size:16px;border:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-color-text-main);border-radius:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderRadius) * 1px);transition:border-color 0.25s ease, box-shadow 0.25s ease;outline:0;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);background-color:#fff;padding:10px}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.disabled.svelte-19a73pq{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.unselected.svelte-19a73pq{color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.error.svelte-19a73pq{border-color:var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-input-textarea.svelte-19a73pq{background-color:#fff;border:1px solid #ddd;color:#222;font-size:14px;font-weight:300;padding:16px;width:100%}.zephr-registration-form-input-slider-output.svelte-19a73pq{margin:13px 0 0 10px}.spin.svelte-1cj2gr0{animation:svelte-1cj2gr0-spin 2s 0s infinite linear}.pulse.svelte-1cj2gr0{animation:svelte-1cj2gr0-spin 1s infinite steps(8)}@keyframes svelte-1cj2gr0-spin{0%{transform:rotate(0deg)}100%{transform:rotate(360deg)}}.zephr-registration-form-input-radio.svelte-1qn5n0t{position:absolute;opacity:0;cursor:pointer;height:0;width:0}.zephr-registration-form-radio-label.svelte-1qn5n0t{display:flex;align-items:center;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-radio-dot.svelte-1qn5n0t{position:relative;box-sizing:border-box;height:23px;width:23px;background-color:#fff;border:1px solid #ebebeb;border-radius:50%;margin-right:12px}.checked.svelte-1qn5n0t{border-color:#009fe3}.checked.svelte-1qn5n0t:after{content:””;position:absolute;width:17px;height:17px;background:#009fe3;background:linear-gradient(#009fe3, #006cb5);border-radius:50%;top:2px;left:2px}.disabled.checked.svelte-1qn5n0t:after{background:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.error.svelte-1qn5n0t{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-checkbox.svelte-1gzpw2y{position:absolute;opacity:0;cursor:pointer;height:0;width:0}.zephr-registration-form-checkbox-label.svelte-1gzpw2y{display:flex;align-items:center;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.svelte-1gzpw2y{position:relative;box-sizing:border-box;height:23px;width:23px;background-color:#fff;border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-text-main);border-radius:6px;margin-right:12px;cursor:pointer}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.checked.svelte-1gzpw2y{border-color:#009fe3}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.checked.svelte-1gzpw2y:after{content:””;position:absolute;width:6px;height:13px;border:solid #009fe3;border-width:0 2px 2px 0;transform:rotate(45deg);top:3px;left:8px;box-sizing:border-box}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.disabled.svelte-1gzpw2y{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.disabled.checked.svelte-1gzpw2y:after{border:solid var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border-width:0 2px 2px 0}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.error.svelte-1gzpw2y{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-google-icon.svelte-1jnblvg{width:20px}.zephr-form-link.svelte-64wplc{margin:10px 0;color:#6ba5e9;text-decoration:underline;cursor:pointer;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-form-link-disabled.svelte-64wplc{color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);cursor:none;text-decoration:none}.zephr-registration-form-password-progress.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;margin-top:10px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r{width:100%;height:4px;border-radius:2px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r:not(:first-child){margin-left:8px}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirements.svelte-d1zv9r{margin:20px 0;justify-content:center}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;align-items:center;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-size:12px;height:20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement-icon.svelte-d1zv9r{margin-right:10px;font-size:15px}.zephr-registration-form-password-progress.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;margin-top:10px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r{width:100%;height:4px;border-radius:2px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r:not(:first-child){margin-left:8px}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirements.svelte-d1zv9r{margin:20px 0;justify-content:center}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;align-items:center;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-size:12px;height:20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement-icon.svelte-d1zv9r{margin-right:10px;font-size:15px}
.zephr-registration-form {
max-width: 100%;
background-image: url(/wp-content/themes/sciencenews/client/src/images/cta-module@2x.jpg);
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
margin: 0px auto;
margin-bottom: 4rem;
padding: 20px;
}

.zephr-registration-form-text h6 {
font-size: 0.8rem;
}

.zephr-registration-form h4 {
font-size: 3rem;
}

.zephr-registration-form h4 {
font-size: 1.5rem;
}

.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:hover {
background-color: #fc6a65;
border-color: #fc6a65;
width: 150px;
margin-left: auto;
margin-right: auto;
}
.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:disabled {
background-color: #e04821;
border-color: #e04821;
width: 150px;
margin-left: auto;
margin-right: auto;
}
.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9 {
background-color: #e04821;
border-color: #e04821;
width: 150px;
margin-left: auto;
margin-right: auto;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text > * {
color: #FFFFFF;
font-weight: bold
font: 25px;
}
.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl {
width: 100%;
border: 0;
border-radius: 20px;
margin-top: 10px;
display: none;
}
.zephr-registration-form-response-message-title.svelte-179421u {
font-weight: bold;
margin-bottom: 10px;
display: none;
}
.zephr-registration-form-response-message-success.svelte-179421u {
background-color: #8db869;
border: 1px solid #8db869;
color: white;
margin-top: -0.2rem;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(1){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: center;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(5){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: left;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(7){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: left;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(9){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: left;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-input-label.svelte-1ok5fdj span.svelte-1ok5fdj {
display: none;
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x, .zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x:hover {
border: calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-input-borderColor);
background-color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-checkbox-label.svelte-1gzpw2y {
display: flex;
align-items: center;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
font-size: 20px;
margin-bottom: -20px;
}

That’s not a scenario that has occurred in historical records often, Rosencrans said. “It’s definitely kind of a rare setup for this year.”

He and his colleagues reported that there’s a 40 percent chance that Atlantic hurricane activity will be near normal this year. Near normal is actually unusually high for an El Niño year. But there’s also a 30 percent chance that activity will be above normal, and a 30 percent chance it’ll be below normal.

Overall, the agency is predicting 12 to 17 named storms, of which five to nine are predicted to become hurricanes, with sustained wind speeds of at least 119 kilometers per hour (74 miles per hour). Between one and four of those hurricanes could be category 3 or greater, with wind speeds of at least 178 kph (111 mph). The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends November 30.

There’s little consensus among other groups’ predictions, in part due to the uncertainty of what role El Niño will play. On April 13, Colorado State University, in Fort Collins, announced that it anticipated a below-average season, with just 13 named storms, including six hurricanes. On May 26, the U.K. Meteorological Office announced that it predicts an extremely busy hurricane season in the Atlantic, with 20 named storms, including 11 hurricanes, of which five could be category 3 or greater. The long-term average from 1991 to 2020 is 14 named storms.

So far, 23 different groups have submitted predictions for the 2023 Atlantic season to a platform hosted by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center in Spain, which allows users to compare and contrast the various predictions. There’s a large spread among these predictions, ranging “from below average to well above average,” says Philip Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University who is responsible for the group’s seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts.

That spread is likely the result of two big sources of uncertainty, Klotzbach says: the strength of the El Niño (and when during the year it’s expected to develop), and whether the Atlantic’s surface water temperatures will stay above average.

Each group’s forecast is based on a compilation of many different computer simulations of ocean and atmospheric conditions that might develop during the hurricane season. How often those models agree leads to a probability estimate. NOAA’s models struggled to agree: “That’s why probabilities are not 60 to 70 percent,” Rosencrans said. “That’s to reflect there’s a lot of uncertainty this year in the outlook.”

.subscribe-cta {
color: black;
margin-top: 0px;
background-image: url(“”);
background-size: cover;
padding: 20px;
border: 1px solid #ffcccb;
border-top: 5px solid #e04821;
clear: both;
}

Subscribe to Science News

Get great science journalism, from the most trusted source, delivered to your doorstep.

An emerging El Niño phase is signaled by abnormally warm waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which in turn is tied to shifts in wind strength and humidity around the globe. One of the ways that El Niño tinkers with climate is that it alters the strength of winds in the upper atmosphere over the northern Atlantic Ocean. Those stronger winds can shear off the tops of developing storms, hampering hurricane formation. Warmer ocean waters like those in the Atlantic right now, on the other hand, fuel hurricanes by adding energy to storm systems. How active a season it will be depends on which of those two forces will prevail.

The Met Office, for example, reported that its climate simulations suggest that the wind shear due to this year’s El Niño will be relatively weak, while surface ocean temperatures will remain well above average. Similarly anomalously warm waters in 2017 were found the be the primary cause behind that year’s glut of intense Atlantic hurricanes (SN: 9/28/18).

In the future, hurricane forecasts could become ever more uncertain. It’s unknown how climate change will affect large-scale ocean and climate patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in general (SN: 8/21/19). Computer simulations have suggested that as the atmosphere warms, these globe-scale “teleconnections” may become somewhat disconnected, which also makes them potentially harder to predict (SN: 2/13/23). Climate change is also expected to increase ocean temperatures.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, the Pacific Ocean’s hurricane season has already begun with a powerful storm, Super Typhoon Mawar, which battered Guam as a category 4 cyclone before roaring toward the Philippines on May 25, strengthening to category 5. More

A worldwide gearshift from fossil fuel–powered cars to electric vehicles could significantly reduce the amount of carbon dioxide that humans emit to the atmosphere. But current strategies for vehicle electrification can also shift some pollution to communities already suffering under higher economic, health and environmental burdens, researchers warn.

California, which leads the United States by a mile when it comes to EV adoption, offers a window into this evolving problem. The state is aggressively seeking to reduce its carbon footprint and has made substantial increases in wind and solar power generation as well as in the promotion of electric vehicle purchases. One tool the state has used is the California Clean Vehicle Rebate Project, or CVRP, which kicked off in 2010 and offers consumers money back for the purchase or lease of new EVs.

.email-conversion {
border: 1px solid #ffcccb;
color: white;
margin-top: 50px;
background-image: url(“/wp-content/themes/sciencenews/client/src/images/cta-module@2x.jpg”);
padding: 20px;
clear: both;
}

.zephr-registration-form{max-width:440px;margin:20px auto;padding:20px;background-color:#fff;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form *{box-sizing:border-box}.zephr-registration-form-text > *{color:var(–zephr-color-text-main)}.zephr-registration-form-relative-container{position:relative}.zephr-registration-form-flex-container{display:flex}.zephr-registration-form-input.svelte-blfh8x{display:block;width:100%;height:calc(var(–zephr-input-height) * 1px);padding-left:8px;font-size:16px;border:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-input-borderColor);border-radius:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderRadius) * 1px);transition:border-color 0.25s ease, box-shadow 0.25s ease;outline:0;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);background-color:#fff;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input.svelte-blfh8x::placeholder{color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input-checkbox.svelte-blfh8x{width:auto;height:auto;margin:8px 5px 0 0;float:left}.zephr-registration-form-input-radio.svelte-blfh8x{position:absolute;opacity:0;cursor:pointer;height:0;width:0}.zephr-registration-form-input-color[type=”color”].svelte-blfh8x{width:50px;padding:0;border-radius:50%}.zephr-registration-form-input-color[type=”color”].svelte-blfh8x::-webkit-color-swatch{border:none;border-radius:50%;padding:0}.zephr-registration-form-input-color[type=”color”].svelte-blfh8x::-webkit-color-swatch-wrapper{border:none;border-radius:50%;padding:0}.zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x,.zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x:hover{border:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-input-borderColor);background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input.error.svelte-blfh8x{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-input-label.svelte-1ok5fdj.svelte-1ok5fdj{margin-top:10px;display:block;line-height:30px;font-size:12px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input-label.svelte-1ok5fdj span.svelte-1ok5fdj{display:block}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9{height:calc(var(–zephr-button-height) * 1px);line-height:0;padding:0 20px;text-decoration:none;text-transform:capitalize;text-align:center;border-radius:calc(var(–zephr-button-borderRadius) * 1px);font-size:calc(var(–zephr-button-fontSize) * 1px);font-weight:normal;cursor:pointer;border-style:solid;border-width:calc(var(–zephr-button-borderWidth) * 1px);border-color:var(–zephr-color-action-tinted);transition:backdrop-filter 0.2s, background-color 0.2s;margin-top:20px;display:block;width:100%;background-color:var(–zephr-color-action-main);color:#fff;position:relative;overflow:hidden;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:hover{background-color:var(–zephr-color-action-tinted);border-color:var(–zephr-color-action-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:disabled{background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:disabled:hover{background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5{font-size:19px;text-align:center;margin:20px auto;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input-inner-text.svelte-lvlpcn{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:10px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-divider-container.svelte-mk4m8o{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;margin:40px 0}.zephr-registration-form-divider-line.svelte-mk4m8o{height:1px;width:50%;margin:0 5px;background-color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);;}.zephr-registration-form-divider-text.svelte-mk4m8o{margin:0 12px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);font-size:14px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);white-space:nowrap}.zephr-registration-form-response-message.svelte-179421u{text-align:center;padding:10px 30px;border-radius:5px;font-size:15px;margin-top:10px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-response-message-title.svelte-179421u{font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:10px}.zephr-registration-form-response-message-success.svelte-179421u{background-color:#baecbb;border:1px solid #00bc05}.zephr-registration-form-response-message-error.svelte-179421u{background-color:#fcdbec;border:1px solid #d90c00}.zephr-recaptcha-tcs.svelte-1wyy3bx{margin:20px 0 0 0;font-size:15px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-recaptcha-inline.svelte-1wyy3bx{margin:20px 0 0 0}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in.svelte-gp4ky7{align-items:center}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in-button.svelte-gp4ky7{height:55px;padding:0 15px;color:#000;background-color:#fff;box-shadow:0px 0px 5px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-radius:10px;font-size:17px;display:flex;align-items:center;cursor:pointer;margin-top:20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in-button.svelte-gp4ky7:hover{background-color:#fafafa}.zephr-registration-form-social-sign-in-icon.svelte-gp4ky7{display:flex;justify-content:center;margin-right:30px;width:25px}.zephr-form-link-message.svelte-rt4jae{margin:10px 0 10px 20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl{width:100%;border:0;border-radius:20px;margin-top:10px}.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl::-webkit-progress-bar{background-color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border:0;border-radius:20px}.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl::-webkit-progress-value{background-color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);border:0;border-radius:20px}.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl{margin:auto;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-size:12px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl:first-child{margin-left:0}.zephr-registration-progress-bar-step.svelte-8qyhcl:last-child{margin-right:0}.zephr-registration-form-input-inner-text.svelte-lvlpcn{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:10px;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input-error-text.svelte-19a73pq{color:var(–zephr-color-warning-main);font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.svelte-19a73pq{display:block;appearance:auto;width:100%;height:calc(var(–zephr-input-height) * 1px);font-size:16px;border:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-color-text-main);border-radius:calc(var(–zephr-input-borderRadius) * 1px);transition:border-color 0.25s ease, box-shadow 0.25s ease;outline:0;color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);background-color:#fff;padding:10px}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.disabled.svelte-19a73pq{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.unselected.svelte-19a73pq{color:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-input-select.error.svelte-19a73pq{border-color:var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-input-textarea.svelte-19a73pq{background-color:#fff;border:1px solid #ddd;color:#222;font-size:14px;font-weight:300;padding:16px;width:100%}.zephr-registration-form-input-slider-output.svelte-19a73pq{margin:13px 0 0 10px}.spin.svelte-1cj2gr0{animation:svelte-1cj2gr0-spin 2s 0s infinite linear}.pulse.svelte-1cj2gr0{animation:svelte-1cj2gr0-spin 1s infinite steps(8)}@keyframes svelte-1cj2gr0-spin{0%{transform:rotate(0deg)}100%{transform:rotate(360deg)}}.zephr-registration-form-input-radio.svelte-1qn5n0t{position:absolute;opacity:0;cursor:pointer;height:0;width:0}.zephr-registration-form-radio-label.svelte-1qn5n0t{display:flex;align-items:center;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-radio-dot.svelte-1qn5n0t{position:relative;box-sizing:border-box;height:23px;width:23px;background-color:#fff;border:1px solid #ebebeb;border-radius:50%;margin-right:12px}.checked.svelte-1qn5n0t{border-color:#009fe3}.checked.svelte-1qn5n0t:after{content:””;position:absolute;width:17px;height:17px;background:#009fe3;background:linear-gradient(#009fe3, #006cb5);border-radius:50%;top:2px;left:2px}.disabled.checked.svelte-1qn5n0t:after{background:var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.error.svelte-1qn5n0t{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-checkbox.svelte-1gzpw2y{position:absolute;opacity:0;cursor:pointer;height:0;width:0}.zephr-registration-form-checkbox-label.svelte-1gzpw2y{display:flex;align-items:center;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.svelte-1gzpw2y{position:relative;box-sizing:border-box;height:23px;width:23px;background-color:#fff;border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-text-main);border-radius:6px;margin-right:12px;cursor:pointer}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.checked.svelte-1gzpw2y{border-color:#009fe3}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.checked.svelte-1gzpw2y:after{content:””;position:absolute;width:6px;height:13px;border:solid #009fe3;border-width:0 2px 2px 0;transform:rotate(45deg);top:3px;left:8px;box-sizing:border-box}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.disabled.svelte-1gzpw2y{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-background-tinted)}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.disabled.checked.svelte-1gzpw2y:after{border:solid var(–zephr-color-background-tinted);border-width:0 2px 2px 0}.zephr-registration-form-checkmark.error.svelte-1gzpw2y{border:1px solid var(–zephr-color-warning-main)}.zephr-registration-form-google-icon.svelte-1jnblvg{width:20px}.zephr-form-link.svelte-64wplc{margin:10px 0;color:#6ba5e9;text-decoration:underline;cursor:pointer;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-form-link-disabled.svelte-64wplc{color:var(–zephr-color-text-main);cursor:none;text-decoration:none}.zephr-registration-form-password-progress.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;margin-top:10px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r{width:100%;height:4px;border-radius:2px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r:not(:first-child){margin-left:8px}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirements.svelte-d1zv9r{margin:20px 0;justify-content:center}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;align-items:center;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-size:12px;height:20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement-icon.svelte-d1zv9r{margin-right:10px;font-size:15px}.zephr-registration-form-password-progress.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;margin-top:10px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r{width:100%;height:4px;border-radius:2px}.zephr-registration-form-password-bar.svelte-d1zv9r:not(:first-child){margin-left:8px}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirements.svelte-d1zv9r{margin:20px 0;justify-content:center}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement.svelte-d1zv9r{display:flex;align-items:center;color:var(–zephr-color-text-tinted);font-size:12px;height:20px;font-family:var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)}.zephr-registration-form-password-requirement-icon.svelte-d1zv9r{margin-right:10px;font-size:15px}
.zephr-registration-form {
max-width: 100%;
background-image: url(/wp-content/themes/sciencenews/client/src/images/cta-module@2x.jpg);
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
margin: 0px auto;
margin-bottom: 4rem;
padding: 20px;
}

.zephr-registration-form-text h6 {
font-size: 0.8rem;
}

.zephr-registration-form h4 {
font-size: 3rem;
}

.zephr-registration-form h4 {
font-size: 1.5rem;
}

.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:hover {
background-color: #fc6a65;
border-color: #fc6a65;
width: 150px;
margin-left: auto;
margin-right: auto;
}
.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9:disabled {
background-color: #e04821;
border-color: #e04821;
width: 150px;
margin-left: auto;
margin-right: auto;
}
.zephr-registration-form-button.svelte-17g75t9 {
background-color: #e04821;
border-color: #e04821;
width: 150px;
margin-left: auto;
margin-right: auto;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text > * {
color: #FFFFFF;
font-weight: bold
font: 25px;
}
.zephr-registration-form-progress-bar.svelte-8qyhcl {
width: 100%;
border: 0;
border-radius: 20px;
margin-top: 10px;
display: none;
}
.zephr-registration-form-response-message-title.svelte-179421u {
font-weight: bold;
margin-bottom: 10px;
display: none;
}
.zephr-registration-form-response-message-success.svelte-179421u {
background-color: #8db869;
border: 1px solid #8db869;
color: white;
margin-top: -0.2rem;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(1){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: center;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(5){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: left;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(7){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: left;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-text.svelte-i1fi5:nth-child(9){
font-size: 18px;
text-align: left;
margin: 20px auto;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-input-label.svelte-1ok5fdj span.svelte-1ok5fdj {
display: none;
color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x, .zephr-registration-form-input.disabled.svelte-blfh8x:hover {
border: calc(var(–zephr-input-borderWidth) * 1px) solid var(–zephr-input-borderColor);
background-color: white;
}
.zephr-registration-form-checkbox-label.svelte-1gzpw2y {
display: flex;
align-items: center;
font-family: var(–zephr-typography-body-font), var(–zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);
color: white;
font-size: 20px;
margin-bottom: -20px;
}

Now, an analysis of the CVRP’s impact on the state’s air quality from 2010 to 2021 reveals both good and bad news, researchers report May 3 in PLOS Climate.

To assess the impact of the CVRP on a community and statewide level, the team developed a computer model that incorporates data on where the rebates went, how much additional electricity would be required to power those vehicles, which of the state’s electric generating units would provide that power and how much pollution they might produce.

The team then overlapped these data with a mapping tool called CalEnviroScreen that identifies which of the state’s more than 8,000 census tracts — county subdivisions used in population assessments — are the most vulnerable to pollution. That vulnerability measure is based not only on exposure to pollutants such as power plant emissions and unsafe water but also on factors such as income, education level, access to health care and linguistic isolation.

The good news is that the CVRP is responsible for making a dent in the state’s overall CO2 emissions, reducing them by about 280,000 metric tons per year on average, says environmental scientist Jaye Mejía-Duwan of the University of California, Berkeley. In 2020, transportation in California produced about 160 million tons of CO2, about 40 percent of the total 370 million tons of CO2 emitted by the state that year.

The program has also reduced the state’s overall emissions of other types of air-polluting gases, including sulfur dioxide and several nitrogen oxide gases collectively called NOx.

The bad news is that the most disadvantaged communities in the state didn’t see the same overall improvement in air quality, Mejía-Duwan and colleagues found. Those communities didn’t have the same decreases in sulfur dioxide and NOx gases — and in fact saw an increase in one type of air pollution, tiny particulates known as PM2.5 (SN: 7/30/20). “These particles are small enough to penetrate deep into the lungs and cross over into the bloodstream,” increasing the risk of cancer, cardiovascular problems and cognitive decline, Mejía-Duwan says.  

Where the power is

California uses a computer model called CalEnviroScreen, currently in its fourth version, to determine levels of vulnerability to the impacts of pollution. The most disadvantaged communities (darker blue) are determined by both pollutant exposure and socioeconomic factors. The state’s electricity-generating units (EGUs, circles) are disproportionately located in the most disadvantaged communities. That reveals how increasing electrification, which includes power generated by nonrenewable sources, could increase pollution in many of the most disadvantaged communities.

Pollution impact by community

J. Mejía-Duwan, M. Hino and K. J. Mach/PLOS Climate 2023

J. Mejía-Duwan, M. Hino and K. J. Mach/PLOS Climate 2023

That increase may be indirectly related to putting more EVs on the road. Although electric vehicles themselves don’t produce PM2.5 from their tailpipes, increased electricity generation, if it’s not fossil fuel–free, can. Renewable resources, including rooftop solar cells, supplied about half of California’s electricity in 2022. But natural gas–fired power plants still provide a hefty chunk of the state’s power.

“Electric vehicles are often incorrectly referred to as ‘zero-emission vehicles,’ but they’re only as clean as the underlying electric grid from which the energy is sourced,” Mejía-Duwan says. The most disadvantaged 25 percent of the state’s communities also contain 50 percent of the power plants, the team found.

.subscribe-cta {
color: black;
margin-top: 0px;
background-image: url(“”);
background-size: cover;
padding: 20px;
border: 1px solid #ffcccb;
border-top: 5px solid #e04821;
clear: both;
}

Subscribe to Science News

Get great science journalism, from the most trusted source, delivered to your doorstep.

EVs also tend to be relatively heavy due to their hefty batteries. And “heavier vehicles can produce as much if not more particulate matter” than equivalently sized fossil fuel-powered cars, due to brake, tire or road wear, Mejía-Duwan says.

Increasing the cleanliness of the electric grid would help, as would changes to the management of the state’s generated power, the researchers say. California’s solar, wind and hydroelectric energy production has grown rapidly. But the battery technology to store and use that energy later lags behind. Most of that energy is generated during the day, so some researchers have suggested plugging in electric vehicles while it’s light out to take advantage of the daytime glut of electricity — and then using the vehicles to help power houses at nighttime (SN: 12/22/21).

But, clever as that idea is, it doesn’t address the underlying factors behind these inequities. Since 2010, the CVRP has provided over 400,000 rebates for EVs of up to $7,500, depending on income. Yet, as it turns out, those rebates have disproportionately gone to the least disadvantaged communities. “That’s a major driver of these inequities,” Mejía-Duwan says.

Changing that isn’t an easy fix. The state has tried several ways to address the issue, such as by imposing an income cap on eligibility.

But those efforts have had little effect, particularly given strong barriers that stand in the way of the adoption of EVs by people in disadvantaged communities. One roadblock is that prospective EV buyers must have enough money for a down payment, and then fill out forms and be able to wait several months for the rebate money. Another is that car manufacturers are trending toward producing larger, more expensive EVs. Chevrolet, for example, announced in April that its most affordable EV, the Bolt, will be discontinued as the company pivots to producing electric SUVs.

There’s also a lack of equitable access to vehicle charging infrastructure. And then there are subtler but no less insidious issues, such as “a lack of sufficient multicultural and multilingual outreach about EVs, plus the fact that people of color and minoritized communities report facing discrimination at dealerships,” Mejía-Duwan says.

These findings echo and support researchers’ longtime concerns about how current programs to encourage vehicle electrification will disproportionately impact people. “It’s not a surprise,” says Román Partida-López, senior legal counsel for transportation equity at The Greenlining Institute, a nonprofit organization based in Oakland, Calif. “What [California] is doing is a move in the right direction, but it’s not enough.”

California and other states pursuing aggressive zero-emissions policies need to shift their thinking, Partida-López says, to be more intentional about targeting their efforts toward the communities experiencing the greatest impacts (SN: 12/14/22). Rebates, in particular, are known to be an inequitable approach, he says, because they “assume you have the money up front to be able to put down a down payment of several thousand dollars.”

A better strategy to reduce the barriers to EV adoption, he says, would be to provide other types of incentives, such as vouchers that low-income households could use at the time of purchase as well as accessible financing programs.

After all, making EVs accessible to everyone is going to be essential to the big picture of transitioning to zero emissions (SN: 1/27/23). “We’re not going to meet any of those goals unless we center equity” in program designs, Partida-López says. “The focus has always been, ‘How do we transform the market?’ We need to change the narrative to ‘How are we going to focus on the people most impacted, to help with this transition?’”

.image-mobile {

display: none;

}

@media (max-width: 400px) {

.image-mobile {

display: block;

}

.image-desktop {

display: none;

}

} More