Open source tool can help identify gerrymandering in voting maps
With state legislatures nationwide preparing for the once-a-decade redrawing of voting districts, a research team has developed a better computational method to help identify improper gerrymandering designed to favor specific candidates or political parties.
In an article in the Harvard Data Science Review, the researchers describe the improved mathematical methodology of an open source tool called GerryChain (https://github.com/mggg/GerryChain). The tool can help observers detect gerrymandering in a voting district plan by creating a pool, or ensemble, of alternate maps that also meet legal voting criteria. This map ensemble can show if the proposed plan is an extreme outlier — one that is very unusual from the norm of plans generated without bias, and therefore, likely to be drawn with partisan goals in mind.
An earlier version of GerryChain was used to analyze maps proposed to remedy the Virginia House of Delegates districts that a federal court ruled in 2018 were unconstitutional racial gerrymanders. The updated tool will likely play a role in the upcoming redistricting using new census data.
“We wanted to build an open-source software tool and make that available to people interested in reform, especially in states where there are skewed baselines,” said Daryl DeFord, assistant mathematics professor at Washington State University and a co-lead author on the paper. “It can be an impactful way for people to get involved in this process, particularly going into this year’s redistricting cycle where there are going to be a lot of opportunities for pointing out less than optimal behavior.”
The GerryChain tool, first created by a team led by DeFord as a part of the 2018 Voting Rights Data Institute, has already been downloaded 20,000 times. The new paper, authored by Deford along with Moon Duchin of Tufts University and Justin Solomon of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, focuses on how the mathematical and computational models implemented in GerryChain can be used to put proposed voting districting plans into context by creating large samples of alternative valid plans for comparison. These alternate plans are often used when a voting plan is challenged in court as being unfair as well as to analyze potential impacts of redistricting reform.
For instance, the enacted 2010 House of Delegates plan in Virginia had 12 voting districts with a Black voting age population at or above 55%. By comparing that plan against an ensemble of alternate plans that all fit the legal criteria, advocates showed that map was an extreme outlier of what was possible. In other words, it was likely drawn intentionally to “pack” some districts with a Black voter population to “crack” other districts, breaking the influence of those voters. More