Philippa Kaur

More stories

  • 125 Shares99 Views

    in Humans

    Football matches in top European leagues are becoming more predictable

    Computer predictions for the outcome of European football matches over a 26-year period become more accurate in recent years

    Humans

    15 December 2021

    By Chris Stokel-Walker
    A match between KRC Genk and Club Brugge in the Belgian First Division AJoris Verwijst/BSR Agency/Getty Images
    Football matches have become more predictable over time, according to an analysis of 87,816 matches across 11 European leagues.
    The study covers the results of matches between 1993 and 2019, including 10,044 each from England’s Premier League and Spain’s La Liga, as well as leading divisions in Belgium, Greece, Scotland and Turkey, among others.
    A computer model that was given data from the matches tried to predict whether the home or away team would win by looking at the performance of the teams in previous matches in the league. The model didn’t count any drawn matches, which excluded between a quarter and a third of the total matches from the analysis.Advertisement
    “Our model isn’t the most accurate,” says Taha Yasseri at University College Dublin in Ireland. “I’m sure there are better models, but it’s very simple and you can go back 26 years and do the exercise as if you were doing the prediction 26 years ago.”
    The average AUC score – which measures how well the computer model performed – was around 0.75, meaning that the model correctly predicted the match result 75 per cent of the time.

    Seven of the 11 leagues that were studied saw an increase in predictability over time. Richer leagues, such as the Premier League and La Liga, had higher AUC scores than worse-funded ones, like Belgium’s First Division A.
    The study found a correlation between predictability and inequality, in terms of the distribution of points between teams at the end of the season – that is, match results are predicted correctly more often in leagues where the points are spread more unequally.
    The researchers suggest that football is becoming more predictable because inequality between the richest and poorest teams has grown, as prize money and other revenues have increased and successful clubs can spend more on players.
    The study also found that home team advantage is becoming less of a factor in matches. In France, for instance, home teams took around two-thirds of points in 1993, but around 58 per cent of them in 2019.
    Joey O’Brien at the University of Limerick, Ireland, says the researchers make rigorous statistical arguments that football has become more predictable. “Perhaps, at a more philosophical level, one could also question whether this predictability is good for the game,” he says. “Do fans get just as much enjoyment observing skilled teams predictably performing strongly?”
    Journal reference: Royal Society Open Science, DOI: 10.1098/rsos.210617

    More on these topics: More

  • 163 Shares119 Views

    in Space & Astronomy

    The only known pulsar duo sheds new light on general relativity and more

    The only known duo of pulsars has just revealed a one-of-a-kind heap of cosmic insights.

    For over 16 years, scientists have been observing the pair of pulsars, neutron stars that appear to pulsate. The measurements confirm Einstein’s theory of gravity, general relativity, to new levels of precision, and hint at subtle effects of the theory, physicists report in a paper published December 13 in Physical Review X.

    Pulsars, spinning dead stars made of densely packed neutrons, appear to blink on and off due to their lighthouse-like beams of radiation that sweep past Earth at regular intervals. Variations in the timing of those pulses can expose pulsars’ movements and effects of general relativity. While physicists have found plenty of individual pulsars, there’s only one known pair orbiting one another. The 2003 discovery of the double-pulsar system, dubbed J0737-3039, opened up a new world of possible ways to test general relativity.

    One of the pulsars whirls around roughly 44 times per second while the other spins about once every 2.8 seconds. The slower pulsar went dark in 2008, due to a quirk of general relativity that rotated its beams out of view. But researchers kept monitoring the remaining visible pulsar, combining that new data with older observations to improve the precision of their measurements.

    Sign Up For the Latest from Science News

    Headlines and summaries of the latest Science News articles, delivered to your inbox

    Thank you for signing up!

    There was a problem signing you up.

    Now, astrophysicist Michael Kramer of the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy in Bonn, Germany, and colleagues have dropped an exhaustive paper that “just lays it all out,” says physicist Clifford Will of the University of Florida in Gainesville. “To me, it’s just magnificent.”

    Here are five insights from the new study:

    1. Einstein was right, in so many ways.

    The pulsar duo allows for five independent tests of general relativity in one, checking whether various properties of the orbit match predictions of Einstein’s theory. For example, the researchers measure the rate at which the orbit’s ellipse rotates, or precesses, to see if it agrees with expectations. All of the parameters fell in line with Einstein.

    What’s more, says astrophysicist Scott Ransom of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Charlottesville, Va., “each of the individual tests of general relativity have gotten so precise that …  higher-order effects of general relativity have to be included to match the data.” That means that the measurements are so exacting that they hint at subtle peculiarities of gravity. “All of those things are really amazing,” says Ransom, who was not involved with the research.

    2. Gravitational waves are sapping energy.

    The observations reveal that the pulsars’ orbit is shrinking. By measuring how long the pulsars take to complete each orbit, the researchers determined that the pair get about seven millimeters closer every day.

    That’s because, as they orbit, the pulsars stir up gravitational waves, ripples in spacetime that vibrate outward, carrying away energy (SN: 12/18/15). This telltale shrinkage was seen for the first time in the 1970s in a system with one pulsar and one neutron star, providing early evidence for gravitational waves (SN: 12/16/78). But the new result is 25 times as precise as the earlier measurement.

    3. The pulsar is losing mass and that matters.

    There’s a subtler effect that tweaks that orbit, too. Pulsars gradually slow down over time, losing rotational energy. And because energy and mass are two sides of the same coin, that means the faster pulsar is losing about 8 million metric tons per second.

    “When I realized that for the first time, it really blew me away,” says Kramer. Although it sounds like a lot, that mass loss equates to only a tiny adjustment of the orbit. Previously, scientists could neglect this effect in calculations because the tweak was so small. But the measurement of the orbit is now precise enough that it makes sense to include.

    4. We can tell which way the pulsar spins and that hints at its origins.

    By studying the timing of the pulses as the light from one pulsar passes by its companion, scientists can tell in what direction the faster pulsar is spinning. The results indicate that the pulsar rotates in the same direction as it orbits, and that provides clues to how the pulsar duo formed.

    The two pulsars began as neighboring stars that exploded, one after the other. Often when a star explodes, the remnant it leaves behind gets kicked away, splitting apart such pairs. The fact that the faster pulsar spins in the same direction it orbits means the explosion that formed it didn’t give it much of a jolt, helping to explain how the union stayed intact.

    5. We have a clue to the pulsar’s radius.

    Gravitational effects are known to cause the orbit’s ellipse to precess, or rotate, by about 17 degrees per year. But there’s a subtle tweak that becomes relevant in the new study. The pulsar drags the fabric of spacetime behind it as it spins, like a twirling dancer’s twisting skirt, altering that precession.

    This dragging effect implies that the faster pulsar’s radius must be less than 22 kilometers, an estimate that, if made more precise with future work, could help unveil the physics of the extremely dense neutron star matter that makes up pulsars (SN: 4/20/21).

    “The authors have clearly been very meticulous in their study of this amazing system,” says astrophysicist Victoria Kaspi of McGill University in Montreal. “It is wonderful to see that the double pulsar … indeed is living up to its unique promise.” More

  • 163 Shares169 Views

    in Space & Astronomy

    The cosmic ‘Cow’ may have produced a new neutron star or black hole

    A cosmic flare-up called the Cow seems to have left behind a black hole or neutron star.

    When the flash was spotted in June 2018, astronomers debated its origins. Now, astrophysicist DJ Pasham of MIT and colleagues have seen the first direct evidence of what the Cow left behind. “We may be seeing the birth of a black hole or neutron star,” Pasham says.  

    The burst’s official, random designation is AT2018cow, but astronomers affectionately dubbed it the Cow. The light originated about 200 million light-years away and was 10 times as bright as an ordinary supernova, the explosion that marks the death of a massive star.

    Astronomers thought the flare-up could have been from an unusual star being eaten by a black hole or from a weird sort of supernova that left behind a black hole or neutron star (SN: 6/21/19).

    So Pasham and colleagues checked the Cow for flickering X-rays, which are typically produced close to a compact object, possibly in a disk of hot material around a black hole or on the surface of a neutron star.

    Flickers in these X-rays can reveal the size of their source. The Cow’s X-rays flicker roughly every 4 milliseconds, meaning the object that produces them must be no more than 1,000 kilometers wide. Only a neutron star or a black hole fits the bill, Pasham and colleagues report December 13 in Nature Astronomy.

    Because the Cow’s flash was from the explosion that produced either of these objects, a preexisting black hole was probably not responsible for the burst. Pasham admits he was hoping for a black hole eating an exotic star. “I was a little bit disappointed,” he says. “But I’m more blown away that this could be direct evidence of the birth of a black hole. This is an even cooler result.” More

  • 138 Shares179 Views

    in Humans

    Babies bond better with strangers when they can smell their mother

    Maternal body odour signals to babies that they can safely build relationships with other adults, a trait that may have evolved so that mothers can share the load of child rearing

    Humans

    10 December 2021

    By Alice Klein
    A mother and daughterfizkes/Shutterstock
    Babies are more socially receptive to unfamiliar women when they can smell their mother’s natural body odour, suggesting that maternal scent functions as a safety signal.
    Previous research has found that mothers’ unique smell signatures allow their babies to recognise them and have a soothing effect when they are in pain.
    Yaara Endevelt-Shapira at The Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel, and her colleagues wondered if signals in maternal odour also change the way that infants respond to strangers.Advertisement
    They asked 62 mothers to wear cotton T-shirts for two consecutive nights and avoid using deodorant or other scented products, so that their natural smell would rub off onto the clothing.
    Their babies – aged 7 months on average – were then strapped into chairs and introduced to an unfamiliar woman who was about the same age as their mother, lived in the same area and was a mother herself.
    When the babies had their mother’s T-shirt under their nose, they were more likely to smile, laugh and gaze at the stranger than if they were sniffing an identical unworn T-shirt.
    Electroencephalography (EEG) devices fitted to both participants’ heads showed that the babies’ electrical brainwaves were also more likely to synchronise with the stranger’s when they could smell their mother’s T-shirt. The same kind of brainwave synchronisation is found between babies and their mothers when they gaze at each other and is thought to be a sign of feeling mutual connection.
    The findings suggest that “maternal body odours can assist infants in transitioning to social groups, exploring new environments and communicating with unfamiliar partners”, says Endevelt-Shapira.

    This could explain why bringing a “transitional object” like a blanket or cuddly toy from home can help young children settle into nursery school, because it might smell a bit like their mother, says Endevelt-Shapira. The researchers didn’t look at whether the scent of fathers or other familiar caregivers can have a similar effect.
    Human babies benefit from bonding with adults other than their parents because they are more helpless than the young of other species and often require a wider circle of care, says Endevelt-Shapira. This may be why maternal odour facilitates these external relationships, she says.
    The current study found that maternal scent helps babies to bond with women who are similar to their own mothers, but more research is needed to see if the effect extends to women from different cultures and men, says Endevelt-Shapira.
    Journal reference: Science Advances, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abg6867
    Sign up to our free Health Check newsletter for a round-up of all the health and fitness news you need to know, every Saturday

    More on these topics: More

  • 138 Shares119 Views

    in Humans

    How to make a beautiful gingerbread house that won't fall down

    StockFood/Jones, Huw
    CREATING a gingerbread house is a fun festive activity, but shoddy construction can spoil the party and put any gingerbread inhabitants in serious danger. This recipe and some tips will help you avoid catastrophe.
    First, create a design. It is helpful to draw the pieces for your house on paper, then cut these shapes out to use as templates. The quantities of ingredients listed will give you enough gingerbread to make a structure 30 centimetres tall with walls 20 cms wide.
    Building requires a strong and stable biscuit. A dense dough with a low moisture content is ideal, so … More

  • 138 Shares199 Views

    in Humans

    Steven Pinker interview: Why humans aren't as irrational as they seem

    To explain the paradox of a smart species that embraces fake news, conspiracy theories and paranormal woo, we need to rethink rationality, says psychologist Steven Pinker

    Humans

    8 December 2021

    By Graham Lawton
    Jennie Edwards
    HUMANITY faces some huge challenges, from the coronavirus pandemic and climate change to fundamentalism, inequality, racism and war. Now, more than ever, we need to think clearly to come up with solutions. But instead, conspiracy theories abound, fake news is in vogue and belief in the paranormal is as strong as ever. It seems that we are suffering from a collective failure of rationality.
    Steven Pinker doesn’t buy into this disheartening conclusion. In his new book, Rationality: What it is, why it seems scarce, why it matters, the Harvard University psychologist challenges the orthodoxy that sees Homo sapiens … More

  • 125 Shares199 Views

    in Humans

    Don’t miss: The new science reshaping our relationship with cancer

    Read
    Absynthe by Brendan Bellecourt is a delirious tale of altered realities set in a world where the first world war ushered in a technological utopia of automata and monorails, plus a serum that can give people telepathic abilities.
    Mark Waugh
    Visit
    Cancer Revolution at the Science and Industry Museum in Manchester, UK, explores the new science that is allowing more of us than ever before to live longer and better with the disease. The exhibition is free and runs until March 2022.Advertisement

    Read
    Racism, Not Race is a rigorous discussion of the scientific answers to questions of race. Joseph Graves Jr and Alan Goodman explain why race isn’t a biological fact and ponder why society continues to act as if it is.

    More on these topics: More

  • 100 Shares179 Views

    in Humans

    Dr. Brain review: Scientifically absurd but strangely entertaining

    By Josh Bell
    When Dr Sewon Koh uploads memories from dead people, he doesn’t always like what he seesCourtesy of Apple
    Dr. Brain
    Apple TV+
    WITH a name like Dr Brain, the title character of the first South Korean-language series from Apple TV+ sounds like he should be a second-string Marvel superhero. Yet while Dr Sewon Koh (Parasite‘s Lee Sun-kyun) does have superhuman powers of a kind, he isn’t a superhero, and no one actually calls him Dr Brain.Advertisement
    The series is an adaptation of a South Korean webtoon in which a neuroscientist develops a way to mine the brains of dead people for their memories, which he can weave into his own. Despite the somewhat absurd premise, this adaptation plays it mostly straight, keeping its story grounded in character drama and sci-fi.
    Sewon is a talented and eccentric neuroscientist who has devoted his life to understanding how brains work. He develops a technology called brain syncing, which connects two brains through a silly-looking contraption made of wires, dials and blinking lights that are supposed to have something to do with quantum entanglement. The details are hazy, but series director and co-writer Kim Jee-woon presents it all with due reverence.
    Sewon decides that he must be the first human test subject for his invention. So he tasks his assistant with procuring a fresh body from the morgue and hooks himself up to the dead man’s brain.
    As we soon discover, Sewon’s motivation for uploading other people’s memories isn’t solely scientific curiosity. He also comes overburdened with a tragic backstory, which began when his mother was killed in a road accident when he was a child. Then, years later, he saw his young son die in a house fire and his wife fall into a coma after a suicide attempt – a condition in which she remains.
    The incidents with his wife and son occurred under mysterious circumstances, and soon after Sewon’s first brain sync, he is visited by a private investigator who is also looking for answers about those tragedies. The police soon show up, too, and Dr. Brain morphs into a murder mystery, as Sewon uses his skills to uncover a shadowy conspiracy that is targeting him and his family.
    However, the more brains that Sewon syncs with, the more his mind fractures, as bits of the personalities and skills of the subjects take hold in his own brain. At one point, he hooks himself up to his family’s dead cat, which may have witnessed a murder. From then on, he possesses cat-like abilities, allowing him to quickly climb a tree, see better in the dark and land on his feet when jumping from a building. It is an appealingly goofy touch in a series that sometimes takes itself too seriously, given its somewhat outlandish premise.
    Kim, who is best known outside South Korea for mind-bending thrillers A Tale of Two Sisters and I Saw the Devil (as well as Arnold Schwarzenegger action movie The Last Stand), directs Dr. Brain as a mix of mundane police procedural and bizarre head trip.
    The middle portion of the six-episode series drags a little, as it focuses more on crime solving and less on brain syncing. But Kim reliably returns to the surreal imagery of Sewon’s visions, regardless of whether he is hooked up to another brain or just receiving some crucial piece of insight. The director also stages some exciting action sequences, including a chase through a mall and a close-quarters fight in an empty cargo transport.
    Dr. Brain isn’t quite as out there as fans of Kim’s best-known films might hope for (or as its faintly ridiculous set-up might suggest), but it is still an entertainingly off-kilter take on a murder mystery, with a protagonist who is admirably committed to his own strange ideas.

    More on these topics: More