Focus on outliers creates flawed snap judgments
You enter a room and quickly scan the crowd to gain a sense of who’s there — how many men versus women. How reliable is your estimate?
Not very, according to new research from Duke University.
In an experimental study, researchers found that participants consistently erred in estimating the proportion of men and women in a group. And participants erred in a particular way: They overestimated whichever group was in the minority.
“Our attention is drawn to outliers,” said Mel W. Khaw, a postdoctoral research associate at Duke and the study’s lead author. “We tend to overestimate people who stand out in a crowd.”
For the study, which appears online in the journal Cognition, researchers recruited 48 observers ages 18-28. Participants were presented with a grid of 12 faces and were given just one second to glance at the grid. Study participants were then asked to estimate the number of men and women in the grid.
Participants accurately assessed homogenous groups — groups containing all men or all women. But if a group contained fewer women, say, participants overestimated the number of women present. More

