Humans

Reinhard Dirscherl/ullstein bild via Getty Images“A YEAR of tackling great challenges.” In the title of our review of the year, “tackling” is the operative word. Two great challenges have dominated the past 12 months: the ongoing covid-19 pandemic, and efforts to address climate change, as embodied by the COP26 summit held in Glasgow, UK, in November. Both have seen significant progress – but only the most irrational optimist could claim that what we have achieved so far amounts to solutions.
Our retrospective leader of 2020 was devoted to the promise that vaccines might bring a swift end to covid-19. At the time, more than 70 … More

Computer predictions for the outcome of European football matches over a 26-year period become more accurate in recent years

Humans

15 December 2021

By Chris Stokel-Walker
A match between KRC Genk and Club Brugge in the Belgian First Division AJoris Verwijst/BSR Agency/Getty Images
Football matches have become more predictable over time, according to an analysis of 87,816 matches across 11 European leagues.
The study covers the results of matches between 1993 and 2019, including 10,044 each from England’s Premier League and Spain’s La Liga, as well as leading divisions in Belgium, Greece, Scotland and Turkey, among others.
A computer model that was given data from the matches tried to predict whether the home or away team would win by looking at the performance of the teams in previous matches in the league. The model didn’t count any drawn matches, which excluded between a quarter and a third of the total matches from the analysis.Advertisement
“Our model isn’t the most accurate,” says Taha Yasseri at University College Dublin in Ireland. “I’m sure there are better models, but it’s very simple and you can go back 26 years and do the exercise as if you were doing the prediction 26 years ago.”
The average AUC score – which measures how well the computer model performed – was around 0.75, meaning that the model correctly predicted the match result 75 per cent of the time.

Seven of the 11 leagues that were studied saw an increase in predictability over time. Richer leagues, such as the Premier League and La Liga, had higher AUC scores than worse-funded ones, like Belgium’s First Division A.
The study found a correlation between predictability and inequality, in terms of the distribution of points between teams at the end of the season – that is, match results are predicted correctly more often in leagues where the points are spread more unequally.
The researchers suggest that football is becoming more predictable because inequality between the richest and poorest teams has grown, as prize money and other revenues have increased and successful clubs can spend more on players.
The study also found that home team advantage is becoming less of a factor in matches. In France, for instance, home teams took around two-thirds of points in 1993, but around 58 per cent of them in 2019.
Joey O’Brien at the University of Limerick, Ireland, says the researchers make rigorous statistical arguments that football has become more predictable. “Perhaps, at a more philosophical level, one could also question whether this predictability is good for the game,” he says. “Do fans get just as much enjoyment observing skilled teams predictably performing strongly?”
Journal reference: Royal Society Open Science, DOI: 10.1098/rsos.210617

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Maternal body odour signals to babies that they can safely build relationships with other adults, a trait that may have evolved so that mothers can share the load of child rearing

Humans

10 December 2021

By Alice Klein
A mother and daughterfizkes/Shutterstock
Babies are more socially receptive to unfamiliar women when they can smell their mother’s natural body odour, suggesting that maternal scent functions as a safety signal.
Previous research has found that mothers’ unique smell signatures allow their babies to recognise them and have a soothing effect when they are in pain.
Yaara Endevelt-Shapira at The Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel, and her colleagues wondered if signals in maternal odour also change the way that infants respond to strangers.Advertisement
They asked 62 mothers to wear cotton T-shirts for two consecutive nights and avoid using deodorant or other scented products, so that their natural smell would rub off onto the clothing.
Their babies – aged 7 months on average – were then strapped into chairs and introduced to an unfamiliar woman who was about the same age as their mother, lived in the same area and was a mother herself.
When the babies had their mother’s T-shirt under their nose, they were more likely to smile, laugh and gaze at the stranger than if they were sniffing an identical unworn T-shirt.
Electroencephalography (EEG) devices fitted to both participants’ heads showed that the babies’ electrical brainwaves were also more likely to synchronise with the stranger’s when they could smell their mother’s T-shirt. The same kind of brainwave synchronisation is found between babies and their mothers when they gaze at each other and is thought to be a sign of feeling mutual connection.
The findings suggest that “maternal body odours can assist infants in transitioning to social groups, exploring new environments and communicating with unfamiliar partners”, says Endevelt-Shapira.

This could explain why bringing a “transitional object” like a blanket or cuddly toy from home can help young children settle into nursery school, because it might smell a bit like their mother, says Endevelt-Shapira. The researchers didn’t look at whether the scent of fathers or other familiar caregivers can have a similar effect.
Human babies benefit from bonding with adults other than their parents because they are more helpless than the young of other species and often require a wider circle of care, says Endevelt-Shapira. This may be why maternal odour facilitates these external relationships, she says.
The current study found that maternal scent helps babies to bond with women who are similar to their own mothers, but more research is needed to see if the effect extends to women from different cultures and men, says Endevelt-Shapira.
Journal reference: Science Advances, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abg6867
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Absynthe by Brendan Bellecourt is a delirious tale of altered realities set in a world where the first world war ushered in a technological utopia of automata and monorails, plus a serum that can give people telepathic abilities.
Mark Waugh
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Cancer Revolution at the Science and Industry Museum in Manchester, UK, explores the new science that is allowing more of us than ever before to live longer and better with the disease. The exhibition is free and runs until March 2022.Advertisement

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Racism, Not Race is a rigorous discussion of the scientific answers to questions of race. Joseph Graves Jr and Alan Goodman explain why race isn’t a biological fact and ponder why society continues to act as if it is.

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To explain the paradox of a smart species that embraces fake news, conspiracy theories and paranormal woo, we need to rethink rationality, says psychologist Steven Pinker

Humans

8 December 2021

By Graham Lawton
Jennie Edwards
HUMANITY faces some huge challenges, from the coronavirus pandemic and climate change to fundamentalism, inequality, racism and war. Now, more than ever, we need to think clearly to come up with solutions. But instead, conspiracy theories abound, fake news is in vogue and belief in the paranormal is as strong as ever. It seems that we are suffering from a collective failure of rationality.
Steven Pinker doesn’t buy into this disheartening conclusion. In his new book, Rationality: What it is, why it seems scarce, why it matters, the Harvard University psychologist challenges the orthodoxy that sees Homo sapiens … More

By Sally Adee

Are we really just puppets being controlled by the words of those in charge?Shutterstock/SvetaZi
Outcast
Louise Carey
Gollancz 20 JanuaryAdvertisement

“YOU’VE exceeded everyone’s expectations.” These are words that Tanta, the hero of Louise Carey’s InScape series, hears often from her boss. The resulting dopamine rush is strong enough to make her knees tremble and to reinforce her total devotion to her employer, InTech.
InTech isn’t just any tech company. It is also the local government, a role it assumed in the wake of a global disaster that obliterated nation states. Civil rights have been replaced by end-user licence agreements, and violations of community guidelines get you executed.
Tanta, like most of her coworker-citizens, has internalised her company’s values so completely that the worst thing you can say about someone is that they are “not being very corporate”.
In Outcast, the second book in the series, Tanta has been assigned the task of finding the deeply uncorporate mole who is selling company secrets. But there is a twist: first, she needs to rid her mind of the phrases used by the corporate autocracy to command loyalty in its citizen-employees.
This is the point at which the series pivots to deft satire, skewering the cult-like employee culture that exists not only in Carey’s dystopian future but in our present, too. From Mark Zuckerberg’s exhortation to “move fast and break things” to Disney’s insistence that all its employees, down to the janitorial staff, identify as “cast members”, corporations already use certain phrases to get inside employees’ heads. Carey has a degree in psychology, which clearly informs her send-up of the way companies do this.
“In Outcast, your employer determines whether you live or die and you think that is good and fair”
In Battle of the Linguist Mages, Scotto Moore takes the idea of weaponised linguistics to the next level. In this world, human language began as an embedded sentient alien mind virus that colonised humanity back in the mists of time, shaping the way we communicated ideas. Then one human finds a way to weaponise these mind viruses into “power morphemes”, sounds that can bypass logic and motor control to evoke a particular feeling, action or belief.
This book won’t be for everyone. It veers wildly from one style to the next: one minute it reads as a snackable version of Ready Player One, the next it channels the loopy extravagance of Douglas Adams, then it abruptly skids into the style of a dense Wikipedia entry. In between the main plot, driven by a glitter-caked, disco-themed multiplayer game where bad guys are killed with a kaleidoscopic beam, Moore plunges into discursive ravines where he explores concepts like memetics and the weaponised persuasion tactics of the advertising industry.
These are very different books by very different authors, but the thread running through both is the unstoppable evolution of persuasion techniques. Using words as weapons is as old as advertising and politics, of course. The question is where the iterations will end. In Outcast, the endpoint is that your employer determines whether you live or die, and you think that is good and fair. In Battle of the Linguist Mages, others can use words to control your ability to think.
What’s scary is that if language as a form of mind control is even theoretically possible, you can be sure some executive has assigned a working group to it. This is the world we live in now. But at least we get to laugh at it through the medium of science fiction.

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StockFood/Jones, Huw
CREATING a gingerbread house is a fun festive activity, but shoddy construction can spoil the party and put any gingerbread inhabitants in serious danger. This recipe and some tips will help you avoid catastrophe.
First, create a design. It is helpful to draw the pieces for your house on paper, then cut these shapes out to use as templates. The quantities of ingredients listed will give you enough gingerbread to make a structure 30 centimetres tall with walls 20 cms wide.
Building requires a strong and stable biscuit. A dense dough with a low moisture content is ideal, so … More

By Gregory Wakeman
Malik (Riz Ahmed, centre) is determined to prepare his sons to fight the aliensAmazon Content Services LLC
Encounter
Michael Pearce
UK cinemas, Amazon PrimeAdvertisement
ENCOUNTER brings together three of the most exciting stars in the British film industry: director Michael Pearce, whose debut feature Beast was critically acclaimed on its release in 2017, screenwriter Joe Barton, who created the equally lauded Giri/Haji, and Riz Ahmed, whose performances in Four Lions, The Night Of and Sound Of Metal secured his status as one of the UK’s best actors.
For the first half of Encounter, their talents complement each other perfectly. Ahmed stars as Malik Khan, an ex-soldier on a mission to rescue his two young children Jay (Lucian-River Chauhan) and Bobby (Aditya Geddada) when the world comes under attack from an extraterrestrial invasion that is made more terrifying by the fact that the aliens come in the form of parasitic microorganisms that first infect insects, then move on to tackle humans.
Encounter begins by immediately establishing the seriousness of the extraterrestrial threat. Before the title sequence even hits the screen, we see the aliens arrive on Earth, attack insects and then quickly explode in numbers. Pearce shoots this sequence with a detail that is simple to follow yet sinister and creepy. So much so that the subsequent shots of insects will make your skin crawl.
The action ratchets up further when Malik’s ex-wife Piya (Janina Gavankar), who doesn’t see the rescue in quite the same light, informs the authorities that her children have been kidnapped. Special agents Shepard (Rory Cochrane) and Hattie (Octavia Spencer) are put on the case and set off in pursuit across the mountains and deserts of California and Nevada.
At this early stage of the film, it is a blast, successfully towing the line between a riveting sci-fi drama and a road-trip movie.
Ahmed commands the screen instantly, giving Malik a toughness and intensity that emerge gradually as the story progresses. The young actors who play his sons are just as impressive, but for very different reasons. It won’t take long for audiences to be charmed by Geddada, who brings a much needed levity and heart to the film. Chauhan becomes more confident as time goes on, displaying an impressive maturity and strength of character. Pearce gives Malik, Jay and Bobby the space to build a genuinely touching connection.
“Ahmed commands the screen, giving Malik a toughness and intensity as the story progresses”
With all this going on amid the beauty and desolation of the Californian mountains, it is impossible not to be drawn into the story. Barton’s economical and believable script propels the film forwards, while providing just enough backstory on the alien attack to keep audiences intrigued. The soundtrack, too, subtly makes the alien creatures feel present and menacing, without ever allowing the sound of their advancement to get in the way of the scene-building and storytelling.
Then, just when Encounter is really getting under way, Pearce hits us with a seismic shift in direction. While potentially a deliberate ploy to surprise the audience and keep us engaged, it doesn’t quite work. Instead, it disrupts what was building into a beautiful and unnervingly atmospheric experience and throws us for a loop. For a good 10 minutes after this turn, it feels as if the story is thrashing around. It is unnerving to say the least.
Despite this unexpected shift in perspective, the narrative isn’t entirely derailed. It soon finds its footing again, and Ahmed’s continually powerful performance ensures that Encounter remains intriguing all the way to its finale. Chauhan, alongside him, does a great job at keeping the intensity high.
On the other hand, anyone who was enjoying the sci-fi-cum-road-trip experience may find themselves less invested in the more intimate and psychological character study that Encounter becomes. Ultimately, by the time the credits roll, it feels like two separate movies that have been jammed together to form an uneven psychological sci-fi thriller that, while good, could have been so much more.

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