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    Capturing methane from the air would slow global warming. Can it be done?

    This summer was the hottest ever recorded on Earth, and 2023 is on track to be the hottest year. Heat waves threatened people’s health across North America, Europe and Asia. Canada had its worst wildfire season ever, and flames devastated the city of Lahaina in Maui. Los Angeles was pounded by an unheard-of summer tropical storm while rains in Libya caused devastating floods that left thousands dead and missing. This extreme weather is a warning sign that we are living in a climate crisis, and a call to action.

    Carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are the main culprit behind climate change, and scientists say they must be reined in. But there’s another greenhouse gas to deal with: methane. Tackling methane may be the best bet for putting the brakes on rising temperatures in the short term, says Rob Jackson, an Earth systems scientist at Stanford University and chair of the Global Carbon Project, which tracks greenhouse gas emissions. “Methane is the strongest lever we have to slow global warming over the next few decades.”

    That’s because it’s relatively short-lived in the atmosphere — methane lasts about 12 years, while CO2 can stick around for hundreds of years. And on a molecule-per-molecule basis, methane is more potent. Over the 20-year period after it’s emitted, methane can warm the atmosphere more than 80 times as much as an equivalent amount of CO2.

    We already have strategies for cutting methane emissions — fixing natural gas leaks (methane is the main component of natural gas), phasing out coal (mining operations release methane), eating less meat and dairy (cows burp up lots of methane) and electrifying transportation and appliances. Implementing all existing methane-mitigation strategies could slow global warming by 30 percent over the next decade, research has shown.

    But some climate scientists, including Jackson, say we need to go further. Several methane sources will be difficult, if not impossible, to eliminate. That includes some human-caused emissions, such as those produced by rice paddies and cattle farming — though practices do exist to reduce these emissions (SN: 11/28/15, p. 22). Some natural sources are poised to release more methane as the world warms. There are signs that tropical wetlands are already releasing more of the gas into the atmosphere, and rapid warming in the Arctic could turn permafrost into a hot spot for methane-making microbes and release a bomb of methane stored in the currently frozen soil.

    So scientists want to develop ways to remove methane directly from the air.

    Three billion metric tons more methane exist in the atmosphere today than in preindustrial times. Removing that excess methane would cool the planet by 0.5 degrees Celsius, Jackson says.

    Similar “negative emissions” strategies are already in limited use for CO2. That gas is captured where it’s emitted, or directly from the air, and then stored somewhere. Methane, however, is a tricky molecule to capture, meaning scientists need different approaches.

    Most ideas are still in early research stages. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine is currently studying these potential technologies, their state of readiness and possible risks, and what further research and funding are needed. Some of the approaches include re-engineering bacteria that are already pros at eating methane and developing catalytic reactors to place in coal-mine vents and other methane-rich places to chemically transform the gas.

    “Methane is a sprint and CO2 is a marathon,” says Desirée Plata, a civil and environmental engineer at MIT. For scientists focused on removing greenhouse gases, it’s off to the races.

    Microbes already remove methane from the air

    Methane, CH4, is readily broken down in the atmosphere, where sunshine and highly reactive hydroxyl radicals are abundant. But it’s a different story when chemists try to work with the molecule. Methane’s four carbon-hydrogen bonds are strong and stable. Currently, chemists must expose the gas to extremely high temperatures and pressures to break it down.

    Even getting hold of the gas is difficult. Despite its potent warming power, it’s present in low concentrations in the atmosphere. Only 2 out of every 1 million air molecules are methane (by comparison, about 400 of every 1 million air molecules are CO2). So it’s challenging to grab enough methane to store it or efficiently convert it into something else.

    Nature’s chemists, however, can take up and transform methane even in these challenging conditions. These microbes, called methanotrophs, use enzymes to eat methane. The natural global uptake of methane by methanotrophs living in soil is about 30 million metric tons per year. Compare that with the roughly 350 million tons of methane that human activities pumped into the atmosphere in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency.

    Microbiologists want to know whether it’s possible to get these bacteria to take up more methane more quickly.

    Lisa Stein, a microbiologist at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, Canada, studies the genetics and physiology of these microbes. “We do basic research to understand how they thrive in different environments,” she says.

    Methanotrophs work especially slowly in low-oxygen environments, Stein says, like wetland muck and landfills, the kinds of places where methane is plentiful. In these environments, microbes that make methane, called methanogens, generate the gas faster than methanotrophs can gobble it up.

    But it might be possible to develop soil amendments and other ecosystem modifications to speed microbial methane uptake, Stein says. She’s also talking with materials scientists about engineering a surface to encourage methanotrophs to grow faster and thus speed up their methane consumption.

    Scientists hope to get around this speed bump with a more detailed understanding of the enzyme that helps many methanotrophs feast on methane. Methane monooxygenase, or MMO, grabs the molecule and, with the help of copper embedded in the enzyme, uses oxygen to break methane’s carbon-hydrogen bonds. The enzyme ultimately produces methanol that the microbes then metabolize.

    Boosting MMO’s speed could not only help with methane removal but also allow engineers to put methanotrophs to work in industrial systems. Turning methane into methanol would be the first step, followed by several faster reactions, to make an end product like plastic or fuel.

    Some bacteria, including Methylococcus capsulatus (shown), naturally break down methane with the enzyme methane monooxygenase. By studying the enzyme’s structure, scientists hope to speed up bacteria’s uptake of the greenhouse gas.Anne Fjellbirkeland/Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.5)

    “Methane monooxygenases are not superfast enzymes,” says Amy Rosenzweig, a chemist at Northwestern University in Evanston, Ill. Any reaction involving MMO will impose a speed limit on the proceedings. “That is the key step, and unless you understand it, it’s going to be very difficult to make an engineered organism do what you want,” Rosenzweig says.

    Enzymes are often shaped to fit their reactants — in this case, methane — like a glove. So having a clear view of MMO’s physical structure could help researchers tweak the enzyme’s actions. MMO is embedded in a lipid membrane in the cell. To image it, structural biologists have typically started by using detergents to remove the lipids, which inactivates the enzyme and results in an incomplete picture of it and its activity. But Rosenzweig and colleagues recently managed to image the enzyme in this lipid context. This unprecedented view of MMO in its native state, published in 2022 in Science, revealed a previously unseen site where copper binds.

    But that’s still not the entire picture. Rosenzweig says she hopes her structural studies, along with other work, will lead to a breakthrough soon enough to help forestall further consequences of global warming. “Maybe people get lucky and engineer a strain quickly,” Rosenzweig says. “You don’t know until you try.”

    Chemists make progress on catalysts

    Other scientists seek to put methane-destroying chemical reactors close to methane sources. These reactors typically use a catalyst to speed up the chemical reactions that convert methane into a less planet-warming molecule. These catalysts often require high temperatures or other stringent conditions to operate, contain expensive metals like platinum, and don’t work well at the concentrations of methane found in ambient air.

    One promising place to start, though, is coal mines. Coal mining is associated with tens of millions of tons of methane emissions worldwide every year. Although coal-fired power plants are being phased out in many countries, coal will be difficult to eliminate entirely due to its key role in steel production, says Plata, of MIT.

    To develop a catalyst that might work in a coal mine, Plata found inspiration in MMO. Her team developed a catalyst material based on a silicate material embedded with copper — the same metal found in MMO and much less expensive than those usually required to oxidize methane. The material is also porous, which improves the catalyst’s efficiency because it has a larger surface area, and thus more places for reactions to occur, than a nonporous material would. The catalyst turns methane into CO2, a reaction that releases heat, which is needed to further fuel the reaction. If methane concentrations are high enough, the reaction will be self-sustaining, Plata says.

    Turning methane into CO2 may sound counterproductive, but it reduces warming overall because methane traps much more heat than CO2 and is far less abundant in the atmosphere. If all the excess methane in the atmosphere were turned into CO2, according to a 2019 study led by Jackson, it would result in only 8.2 billion additional tons of CO2 — equivalent to just a few months of CO2 emissions at today’s rates. And the net effect would be to lessen the heating of the atmosphere by a sixth.

    Cattle feedlots are another place where Plata’s catalytic reactor might work. Barns outfitted with fans to keep cattle comfortable move air around, so reactors could be fitted to these ventilation systems. The next step is determining whether methane concentrations at industrial dairy farms are high enough for the catalyst to work.

    At Drumgoon Dairy in South Dakota, Elijah Martin (left) and Will Sawyer (right) test a small-scale thermal catalytic unit developed in Desirée Plata’s lab at MIT. The reactor transforms methane into carbon dioxide, which could lower the planet’s net warming rate because methane is a stronger greenhouse gas.D. Plata

    Another researcher making progress is energy scientist and engineer Arun Majumdar, one of Jackson’s collaborators at Stanford. In January, Majumdar published initial results describing a catalyst that converts methane into methanol, with an added boost from high-energy ultraviolet light. This UV blast adds the energy needed to overcome CH4’s stubborn bonds — and the carefully designed catalyst stays on target. Previous catalyst designs tended to produce a mix of CO2 and methanol, but this catalyst mostly sticks to making methanol.

    Is geoengineering a path to methane removal?

    A more extreme approach to speed up methane’s natural breakdown is to change the chemistry of the atmosphere itself. A few companies, such as the U.S.-based Blue Dot Change, have proposed releasing chemicals into the sky to enhance methane oxidation.

    Natalie Mahowald, an atmospheric chemist at Cornell University, decided to evaluate this type of geoengineering.

    “I’m not super excited about throwing more things into the atmosphere,” Mahowald says. To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, limiting global warming to 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, though, it’s worth exploring all possibilities, she says. “If we’re going to meet these targets,” she says “we’re going to need some of these crazy ideas to work. So I’m willing to look at it. But I’m looking with a scientist’s critical eye.”

    The main strategy proposed by advocates would inject iron aerosols into the air over the ocean on a sunny day. These aerosols would react with salty sea spray aerosols to form chlorine, which would then attack methane in the atmosphere and initiate further chemical reactions that turn it into CO2. Mahowald wondered how much chlorine would be needed — and if there might be any unintended consequences.

    Detailed modeling revealed something alarming. The iron injections could have the opposite of the intended effect, Mahowald and colleagues reported in July in Nature Communications. Chlorine won’t attack methane if ozone is around. Instead, chlorine will first break down all the ozone it can find. But ozone plays a key role in generating the hydroxyl radicals that naturally break down atmospheric methane. So when ozone levels fall, Mahowald says, the concentration and lifetime of methane molecules in the atmosphere actually increases. To use this strategy to break down methane, geo­engineers would need to add a tremendous amount of chlorine to the atmosphere — enough to first break down the ozone, then attack methane.

    Removing 20 percent of the atmosphere’s methane, thus reducing the planet’s surface temperature by 0.2 degrees Celsius by 2050, for example, would require creating about 630 million tons of atmospheric chlorine every year. That would in turn require injecting perhaps tens of millions of tons of iron. A form of particulate matter, these iron aerosols could worsen air quality; inhaling particulate matter is associated with a range of health problems, particularly cardiovascular and lung disease. This atmospheric tinkering could also create hydrochloric acid that could reach the ocean and acidify it.

    And there’s no guarantee that some of the chlorine wouldn’t make it all the way up to the ozone layer, depleting the planetary shield that protects us from the sun’s harmful UV rays. Mahowald is still studying this possibility.

    Methane is a sprint and CO2 is a marathon. Desirée Plata

    Mahowald is ambivalent about doing research on geoengineering. “We’re just throwing out ideas here because we’re in a terrible, terrible position,” she says. She’s worried about what could happen if all the methane locked up in the world’s permafrost escapes. If scientists can figure out how to use iron aerosols effectively, without adverse effects — and if such geoengineering is accepted by society — we might need it.

    “We’re just trying to see, is there any hope this could work and would we ever want to do it? Would it have enough benefits to outweigh the disadvantages?”

    The committee organized by the National Academies to investigate methane removal is taking these kinds of ethical questions into account, as well as considering the potential cost and scale of technologies. Stein, a committee member, says a framework proposed by Spark Climate Solutions provides some guidance. The organization, a nonprofit based in San Francisco that evaluates methane-removal technologies, proposes investing in tech that can remove tens of millions of tons of methane per year in the coming decades, at a cost of less than $2,000 per ton. Spark cofounder David Mann says the numbers are designed to focus attention and investment on technologies that can make a real difference in curbing climate change in the near term.

    The National Academies group aims to make recommendations about research priorities on methane-removal technologies by next summer. It’s likely that a portfolio of different technologies will be necessary. What works in a cattle feedlot may not work at a wastewater treatment plant, for instance.

    Scientists focused on methane removal are eager for more researchers, research funding and companies to enter the fray — and quickly. “It’s been a crazy year,” Jackson says of 2023’s extreme weather. We’re already feeling the effects of global warming, but we can seize the moment, he says. “This problem is not something for our grandchildren. It’s here.” More

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    The last 12 months were the hottest on record

    The last 12 months were the hottest in 150 years of recordkeeping — and probably in the last 125,000 years — thanks to human-caused climate change, a new report finds.

    From November 2022 through October 2023, the planet’s average temperature was about 1.3 degrees Celsius higher than the average temperature from 1850 to 1900, say researchers with the nonprofit group Climate Central. That’s just shy of the 1.5-degree threshold often cited as a benchmark for avoiding irreversible impacts on the climate (SN: 1/11/22).

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    And over the past year, about 1 in 4 people around the world experienced a climate change–driven heat wave that lasted at least five days, the scientists found.

    The report, released on November 9, comes just ahead of the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties, which begins on November 30. That’s intentional, says Andrew Pershing, vice president for science at Climate Central. There is no doubt that fossil fuels are driving most of this heat, and it’s to be hoped that the world’s nations will take note of these findings, he says (SN: 4/4/22).

    Global average numbers can be hard to grasp. So the new report also quantifies temperatures that people around the world are actually experiencing day-to-day, and how much those are attributable to climate change, Pershing says.

    “We have these super important global numbers such as the 1.5- or 2-degree warming targets, but that isn’t the experience that people on planet Earth have,” he says (SN: 12/17/18). “We wanted to develop a way to really localize that experience … to talk about how climate change influenced that day’s temperatures on any given day anywhere in the planet.”

    To that end, the analysis used Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index, or CSI, a system first described by the organization in 2022. CSI is a daily local temperature attribution system that uses a combination of observational data and climate simulations to determine the likelihood that local temperature variations are attributable to climate change.

    Extreme heat is a relative term, dependent on both place and time. So, in this report, the researchers considered extreme heat for a given location to be daily temperatures that would have been in the 99th percentile for that place from 1991 to 2020 — temperatures, in other words, that locals would recognize as insanely hot.

    Using that index with data from hundreds of countries, states, provinces and major cities, the researchers found that about 90 percent of the world’s population, or 7.3 billion people, experienced at least 10 days of extreme temperatures in the last year that were very strongly affected by climate change.

    Those days had a CSI rating of at least 3, indicating that human-caused climate change made those temperatures at least three times as likely. Nearly 3 out of 4 people experienced over a month of those temperatures.

    The report also reveals stark inequities in the burden of climate change around the world. Earth’s least developed countries, including many nations in sub-Saharan Africa and in Southeast Asia, had a relatively high average CSI of 2, the report notes, though they have contributed the least amount of fossil fuel emissions.

    But climate impacts are also accelerating in many of the world’s richest countries, including the United States. The last 12 months saw brutal heat waves across much of the southern United States. Houston sweltered through a 22-day streak of extreme heat, where each consecutive day topped 38° C (100° Fahrenheit). That was the longest such extreme heat streak of the 700 cities examined with a population of at least 1 million people.

    The CSI analysis is similar to the analyses performed by the consortium World Weather Attribution, or WWA, which looks for the fingerprints of human-caused climate change in specific extreme events around the world (SN: 7/25/23).

    WWA examined a handful of extreme heat waves over the last 12 months, all of which were strongly attributable to climate change, says Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London who has led many of WWA’s attribution studies.

    An immediate reduction of fossil fuels won’t shut off some effects of a century of emissions, including heat absorbed by the oceans or melted glaciers, Otto says. But global temperatures would stop rising, and heat waves would stop getting worse, she says. Keeping the planet below a 1.5-degree warming threshold “is in reach,” she says, “if we want it to be in reach.”

    The last 12 months saw the onset of an El Niño climate pattern, which can bring higher global temperatures on top of the longer-term global warming trend (SN: 6/15/23). But the greatest temperature impact from El Niño generally takes a year or so to develop, as the heat gets disseminated around the globe, Pershing says.

    The previous 12-month record was set from October 2015 to September 2016, as heat from a strong El Niño event spread around the globe. That record — where the global average was 1.29 degrees Celsius higher than the average preindustrial temperature — was tied earlier this year, for the period ending in September 2023.

    That means that, as the El Niño pattern continues to develop into next year, 2024 will probably smash records once again. More

  • in

    What’s driving an increasing number of hurricanes to rapidly intensify?

    On the morning of September 5, a loosely swirling system of thunderstorms formed off the western coast of Africa. By September 6, the system had become a Category 1 storm, with maximum winds at least 130 kilometers per hour (80 miles per hour).

    Just 24 hours later, fueled by the record-warm waters of the North Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Lee whipped itself into a Category 5 monster. In that short time span, its wind speeds doubled, to 260 kilometers per hour (160 miles per hour).

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    As the world’s oceans continue to stockpile heat from global warming, stories of such rapid intensification of tropical cyclones are becoming more commonplace, and not just in the Atlantic.

    “While all eyes are on [Hurricane Lee], [Hurricane Jova] is bombing out in the eastern Pacific,” wrote Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center meteorologist Eric Blake on X, formerly called Twitter, on September 6. “This was just named 36 hours ago and has exploded into a Category 4 hurricane.”

    These storms formed just weeks after Hurricane Idalia, which also rapidly intensified. Its wind speeds cranked up from about 120 kph to 209 kph (or 75 mph to 130 mph) in 24 hours. Shortly afterward, Idalia slammed into Florida’s Gulf Coast.

    All of these hurricanes easily met — and some greatly exceeded — the National Hurricane Center’s definition of rapid intensification, in which a storm’s maximum sustained winds jump by at least 56 kph (35 mph) in less than a day. Such storms can leave people little time to prepare, making the hurricanes particularly dangerous to lives and property.

    Here ‘s what to know about such rapidly intensifying storms.

    A warmer ocean and atmosphere can supercharge storms

    The key ingredients to boost a storm’s power quickly are very warm ocean waters, a lot of moisture in the atmosphere and low vertical wind shear, says atmospheric scientist Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University in Fort Collins (SN: 9/28/18; SN: 9/13/18).

    Vertical wind shear is what happens when winds at different heights in the atmosphere are moving at different speeds and in different directions. Those winds can chip away at a storm as it tries to organize into a tight swirl by pulling heat and moisture away from the storm’s center and sweeping away the upper structure of the storm.

    This year saw the onset of an El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation ocean-climate pattern, a phase that tends to bring more vertical wind shear conditions to the North Atlantic. That means that El Niño years tend to feature fewer Atlantic tropical storms (SN: 5/26/23).

    But so far in 2023, El Niño hasn’t done much to minimize hurricane formation, or dampen the storms’ power. “The first half of the season has not seen the unfavorable upper-level wind conditions in the western Atlantic that are typically observed in an El Niño year,” says Ryan Truchelut, president and chief meteorologist of WeatherTiger, a weather consulting firm based in Tallahassee, Fla. That’s true even in the Caribbean Sea, where El Niño’s shearing power tends to be strongest, Truchelut adds.

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    Generally, there’s more of a contrast in temperature between the Atlantic and Pacific ocean basins during an El Niño year — the weather pattern heats up the eastern tropical Pacific while the Atlantic stays relatively cool.  But 2023 has seen record-breaking ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean and in the Gulf of Mexico (SN: 6/15/23). While the El Niño-warmed Pacific is about 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal, parts of the Atlantic are 1 to 3 degrees C above normal.

    “Temperature contrasts drive jets,” Trechelut says, “and the lack of this contrast is likely responsible for the missing shear.”

    The extremely warm waters of the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico set the stage — all the storms needed was a window of time with favorable wind conditions, says John Kaplan, a hurricane modeler with the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, based in Miami.  “What it really comes down to is whether the conditions for rapid intensification are favorable for even a short period of time,” he says. “If there’s a window — even if not a very long one — the system can take advantage of it. That was the case for both Lee and Idalia.”

    More storms are rapidly intensifying as Earth warms

    It certainly feels like most of the hurricanes in recent years are rapidly intensifying (SN: 8/27/20). But is that a true trend? And if it is, is it linked to climate change?

    Studies suggest that it’s not just anecdotal. In August, researchers reported that the yearly number of tropical storms around the globe that rapidly intensified just offshore (within 400 kilometers of land) increased by about three a decade over the last 40 years, from fewer than five per year in the 1980s to about 15 per year by 2020.

    Open-ocean storms, spinning far out in the big blue, showed no discernible trend, the team found. But that’s perhaps not wholly reassuring, as it’s the storms closer to shore that are most threatening to coastal populations. And a 2021 study reported that tropical cyclones have been migrating closer to the coasts since 1982.

    In 2019, another team focused on observational records of wind-speed changes over 24-hour increments. Based on those data, the researchers found that episodes of rapid intensification in tropical storms tripled from 1982 to 2009. Using climate simulations, the team researchers determined that the rapid intensification trend was strongly linked to anthropogenic human-caused climate change.

    Truchelut notes that the same team authored a 2022 study that further supported an upward trend over the last few decades, determining that a larger proportion of tropical cyclones are now undergoing rapid intensification at some point in their life cycle.

    Regional and local weather patterns — such as more frequent La Niña events (the flipside of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern) — “could dampen rapid intensification trends locally,” Truchelut says. “But there is strong objective evidence that anthropogenic global warming is driving increased proportions of tropical cyclones to undergo rapid intensification worldwide.”

    Klotzbach and colleagues, meanwhile, found another fingerprint of climate change in the rapid intensification of cyclones. The researchers reported in 2022 that the increase in global sea surface temperatures correlate well with an increase in the potential intensity of tropical cyclones around the world — essentially, just how strong the winds are capable of becoming — over the last 30 years. That observed increase was particularly apparent for the most monstrous storms — those whose wind speeds increased by a whopping 93 kph (57 mph) in a single day.

    Despite the fury of Lee and Jova, their threat has largely fizzled. Hurricane Lee downgraded to a Category 3 by September 12 and curved northward; however, it’s also tripled in size, threatening Bermuda with tropical storm force winds. Hurricane Jova, meanwhile, ultimately spun harmlessly in the Pacific before weakening.

    But with the hurricane season only half over, there’s still time for all that hot water to fuel the next big ones. More

  • in

    Some leaves in tropical forests may be getting too hot for photosynthesis

    Like people, leaves have their limits when it comes to heat.

    Scientists first reported in 1864 that the leaves of some plants could survive up to 50° Celsius, only to perish beyond that threshold. More than 150 years later, researchers are making similar findings. In 2021, a study of 147 tropical tree species reported that the average temperature beyond which photosynthesis failed was 46.7° C.

    Now, in the upper canopies of Earth’s tropical forests, roughly 1 in every 10,000 leaves experiences temperatures at least once a year that may be too high for photosynthesis, researchers report August 23 in Nature.

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    That might seem a paltry sum, but a photosynthetic breakdown could harm entire forests if climate change is not halted, the scientists warn. A rise of about 4 degrees C above current temperatures in tropical forests could potentially cause wide swaths of leaves to die en masse, simulations suggest. Still, the researchers acknowledge that the prediction comes with uncertainties.   

    “One small possibility that we’re suggesting … is an incredibly dire tipping point” beyond which tropical forests perish, Christopher Doughty, an ecologist at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff, said at an August 21 news briefing. But “there’s a lot we don’t know.”

    When leaves get too hot, their photosynthetic machinery — proteins that convert light energy into sugars — breaks down. Keen to figure out whether tropical forests were approaching such a threshold, Doughty and colleagues obtained data collected by ECOSTRESS, a thermal sensor aboard the International Space Station, which captures vegetation temperatures on Earth’s surface in 70-meter pixels. That’s about the area that two large tropical trees could fill.

    The team compared the data with measurements from devices on the planet’s surface. These included an instrument in the Amazon, mounted 64 meters high on a tower, as well as swarms of sensors taped to the bottoms of leaves in Brazil, Puerto Rico, Panama and Australia.

    The analysis revealed a mosaic of temperatures in forest canopies. During periods when forests were hot and their soils were dry, temperatures across the canopy could reach an average peak of 34° C. But there was variability; some tracts exceeded 40° C.

    The comparison also revealed a detail unseen by ECOSTRESS — a scatter within the mosaic. Individual leaf temperatures varied in single forest tracts, with some leaves reaching temperatures that far exceeded the tract average. About 0.01 percent of the time, upper canopy leaves sweltered at temperatures above the 46.7° C threshold, the team found.

    The researchers also analyzed data from leaf-warming experiments in Brazil, Puerto Rico and Australia. These experiments showed that each degree of ambient warming had a disproportionate impact on leaf temperatures. For example, when Amazon leaves were subjected to an additional 2 degrees C of ambient warming, maximum leaf temperatures rose from 42.8° to 50.9° C.

    The team used the experimental data, along with the satellite and ground-based data, to simulate the future of tropical forests under climate change. Most forests could endure about 4 degrees C of warming above current levels before trees lose all their leaves, and potentially die, the simulations suggest. That amount of warming might be possible by 2100 in a worst-case scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions continue rising through the century, the researchers say.

    Still, there’s a lot of uncertainty. That’s in part because the adaptive capabilities of different tree species and how the deaths of individual leaves impact a tree’s mortality aren’t well understood.  

    The study may even overestimate vulnerability by “assuming that when leaves hit this critical temperature, they die,” says ecologist Christopher Still of Oregon State University in Corvallis. That’s possible, he says, but we don’t fully understand how long it takes various temperatures to kill different species’ leaves.

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    Predicting the future of these forests will also require more insights into what’s unfolding beneath the canopy, says ecologist Marielle Smith of Bangor University in Wales. “There is still a question mark over the role of small trees and understory leaves, which aren’t going to be as hot.”

    Among tropical forests, the Amazon may be most vulnerable to the type of reckoning predicted by the researchers. “There’s more trees dying [there] now than there were 10 years ago or 20 years ago. We don’t see that in Africa,” Doughty said. That could be because “temperatures are a bit hotter … in the Amazon than in Africa.”

    Some researchers have been warning for years that climate change and deforestation could trigger large parts of the Amazon to transform into savanna and shrubland (SN: 6/16/23).

    “This is a glimpse into a potential tipping point. It’s not saying that the tropical forests are now going to be savannas tomorrow,” study coauthor and ecologist Joshua Fisher of Chapman University in Orange, Calif., said at the briefing. “We can now see this insight … and because we can see that, it means we can act.” More

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    Extreme ocean heat off Florida has ebbed. But for marine life, the danger remains

    In late July, a fierce ocean heat wave ratcheted up temperatures in Florida’s coastal waters to unprecedented highs. One buoy bobbing in shallow, turbid Manatee Bay logged a measurement of 38.3˚ Celsius (101˚ Fahrenheit). That may be the highest temperature ever recorded in the ocean. A week later, that surge in ocean heat had ebbed. But South Florida’s denizens are still in hot water.

    The concern is not just that the Manatee Bay buoy recorded shockingly high, hot tub–level temperatures — actually, “close to the limit of hot tub temperatures” — for several days in a row, says Benjamin Kirtman, a climate scientist at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science.

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    And it’s not just that June and July’s brutally hot water temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are linked to shockingly hot temperatures on land. This summer, Miami’s heat index, a measure of air temperature and humidity, soared to a record-breaking streak of nearly two months, reaching a daily heat index of 38° C (100° F).

    It’s not even that such ocean heat waves are becoming the new normal, as swells of heat more and more frequently crest atop the baseline warming of the global ocean due to climate change (SN: 2/1/22). Florida’s waters may have hit a record high, but July saw widespread ocean heat waves around the world, from the North Atlantic Ocean to the eastern equatorial Pacific to the Southern Indian Ocean.

    “The global oceans have warmed up so much … we’re seeing a ratcheting up that’s unprecedented in the modern instrument record, and maybe in the last 125,000 years,” Kirtman says. “It’s really quite remarkable.”

    ‘Way outside of the bounds of anything these corals have experienced’

    In Florida, the temperatures of the coastal waters have returned to a normal summertime range for now. But the danger remains acute for many ocean dwellers, from corals to fish, says Andrew Baker, a coral biologist also at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School.

    Murky Manatee Bay, swirling with sediment, isn’t home to corals — but the water temperatures in the reefs around the Florida Keys were still “incredibly hot,” perhaps reaching up to 36° C (96° F), Baker says.

    As the sweltering sea temperatures peaked in July, the Coral Restoration Foundation, a nonprofit marine conservation organization based in Key Largo, Fla., found 100 percent coral mortality at one site, Sombrero Reef off Key West. There, heat had caused the corals to bleach.

    Corals may survive a few days of very high temperatures but too long spent in extremely hot water can kill them. That accumulated heat stress is measured by coral scientists in “degree heating weeks,” or DHW, a measure of both the intensity and duration of the heat the corals experienced over the previous 12 weeks. Significant coral bleaching begins to occur at 4˚ C–weeks; at 8˚ C–weeks, corals experience severe, widespread bleaching and significant mortality is expected. The accumulated heat stress on the corals at Sombrero Reef in the Florida Keys (shown) generally peaks in August and September (gray lines). But the mounting heat stress on the corals in 2023 (red line) is unprecedented in records going back to 1985.

    Bleaching occurs when corals’ symbiotic algae, the main source of their food, flee, leaving the corals colorless and essentially starving. Corals can recover from bleaching, but if the events are too severe or too frequent, they can kill entire reefs. U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records show that the heat burden on corals globally has been rising since the 1980s (SN: 1/4/18).

    Even with the return to typical summertime water temperatures off Florida’s coasts, the impacts of July’s heat wave on the region’s corals will linger. That’s because corals have a limit to how much accumulated heat they can tolerate before bleaching. And with this heat wave, the corals have already received far too much heat far too early in the summer, researchers say.

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    NOAA records from sites across the Florida Keys each tell the same worrisome story — that what’s happened in 2023 so far is “way outside of the bounds of anything these corals have experienced,” Baker says. And the corals still must contend with two more months of expected, but still very hot, water in August and September.

    Meanwhile, scientists are racing to save corals growing at nurseries in the Keys, bringing them to onshore laboratories away from the overheated coastal waters. The cultivated corals are part of a decade-long effort to protect the two most important reef species in the region, staghorn and elkhorn coral, from the ever-looming threat of bleaching.

    Members of the Coral Restoration Foundation retrieved these young staghorn corals from an ocean nursery to guarantee their survival after water temperatures rose to as high as 36° Celsius (96° Fahrenheit).Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

    The fledgling finger- to hand-sized corals are cultivated in coastal waters atop bits of PVC tubing, and are ultimately destined to be planted in reefs. As the water temperatures rose, researchers hurried to collect the cultivated corals ahead of their expected spawning in early August. Scientists feared the “heat stress is just too much for these baby corals,” and that they might not spawn at all, Baker says. Happily, some of the rescued staghorn corals, now ensconced in the laboratory, did manage to spawn on August 3, releasing clouds of eggs and sperm into the water. Whether the sperm will fertilize the eggs remains uncertain, but Baker and colleagues are cautiously optimistic.

    It’s not just corals in trouble

    The overheated water is also bad news for everything from sponges to sea grasses to fish. “There are a lot of studies that show that species experiencing ocean heat waves are migrating [to cooler waters],” says Regina Rodrigues, a physical oceanographer at the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil (SN: 8/10/20). But in tropical regions like the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, where cooler waters are prohibitively far away, “that community doesn’t have anywhere to go.”

    That lack of access to an escape route to cooler waters is why the region’s cold-blooded ocean species, including fish, may be even more vulnerable to warming than their counterparts on land. On average, ocean ectotherms spend more time near the upper limits for body temperature than land ectotherms, as marine ecologist Malin Pinsky of Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J., and colleagues reported in 2019.

    Then there’s the anoxia. As water heats up, it releases oxygen, like bubbles escaping a pot boiling on the stove, leaving less oxygen available for sea life. Such heat-amped anoxic waters have been linked to increased sea grass die-offs as well as fish kills. In June, for example, thousands of fish killed by a low-oxygen event washed up on the Texas Gulf Coast just south of Houston.

    Florida’s sea grasses have been in free fall for years, with thousands of hectares of marine sea grass beds wiped out by anoxia as well as nutrient pollution, which can lead to harmful algal blooms that block out the light for underwater plants. The loss of those sea grass ecosystems has been deadly for manatees and other creatures that rely on the grasses for food.

    ‘It’s just bonkers hot’

    What’s driving the brutal ocean temperatures is still uncertain — but human-caused climate change is undeniably at its core, researchers say. “Ninety-three percent of the excess heat in the atmosphere is being absorbed by the ocean,” Rodrigues says. That’s raised the average temperature of ocean waters, “and once the mean temperature is raised, the extremes are easier to achieve.”

    Other factors are also likely playing a role, including this year’s onset of the global climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (SN: 7/13/23). The El Niño phase of that climate pattern tends to increase the global average temperature, and this year’s El Niño is bidding to be “a strong one,” Kirtman says.

    “Certainly, one of the questions that’s come up is how much [of the heat] is internal natural variability, and how much a ratcheting up of climate change,” he says.

    Local extremes — such as the temporary hot tub in Manatee Bay — may also be influenced by factors such as the shallowness of the water and murkier, less-reflective waters absorbing more heat. 

    But, Kirtman says, the global oceans have warmed up so much that El Niño or sediment-laden waters alone can’t possibly explain what’s going on. “This is so crazy, so bonkers. It’s just bonkers hot.” More

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    Luis Melecio-Zambrano is the summer 2023 science writing intern at Science News. They are finishing their master’s degree in science communication from the University of California, Santa Cruz, where they have reported on issues of environmental justice and agriculture. More