Earth

It started with polar bears.

In 2012, polar bear DNA revealed that the iconic species had faced extinction before, likely during a warm period 130,000 years ago, but had rebounded. For researchers, the discovery led to one burning question: Could polar bears make a comeback again?

Studies like this one have emboldened an ambitious plan to create a refuge where Arctic, ice-dependent species, from polar bears down to microbes, could hunker down and wait out climate change. For this, conservationists are pinning their hopes on a region in the Arctic dubbed the Last Ice Area — where ice that persists all summer long will survive the longest in a warming world.

Here, the Arctic will take its last stand. But how long the Last Ice Area will hold on to its summer sea ice remains unclear. A computer simulation released in September predicts that the Last Ice Area could retain its summer sea ice indefinitely if emissions from fossil fuels don’t warm the planet more than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, which is the goal set by the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement (SN: 12/12/15). But a recent report by the United Nations found that the climate is set to warm 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100 under current pledges to reduce emissions, spelling the end of the Arctic’s summer sea ice (SN: 10/26/21).

Nevertheless, some scientists are hoping that humankind will rally to curb emissions and implement technology to capture carbon and other greenhouse gases, which could reduce, or even reverse, the effects of climate change on sea ice. In the meantime, the Last Ice Area could buy ice-dependent species time in the race against extinction, acting as a sanctuary where they can survive climate change, and maybe one day, make their comeback.

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Ecosystem of the frozen sea

The Last Ice Area is a vast floating landscape of solid ice extending from the northern coast of Greenland to Canada’s Banks Island in the west. This region, roughly the length of the West Coast of the United States, is home to the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic, thanks to an archipelago of islands in Canada’s far north that prevents sea ice from drifting south and melting in the Atlantic.

As sea ice from others part of the Arctic rams into this natural barrier, it piles up, forming long towering ice ridges that run for kilometers across the frozen landscape. From above, the area appears desolate. “It’s a pretty quiet place,” says Robert Newton, an oceanographer at Columbia University and coauthor of the recent sea ice model, published September 2 in Science. “A lot of the life is on the bottom of the ice.”

The muddy underbelly of icebergs is home to plankton and single-celled algae that evolved to grow directly on ice. These species form the backbone of an ecosystem that feeds everything from tiny crustaceans all the way up to beluga whales, ringed seals and polar bears.

These plankton and algae species can’t survive without ice. So as summer sea ice disappears across the Arctic, the foundation of this ecosystem is literally melting away. “Much of the habitat Arctic species depend on will become uninhabitable,” says Brandon Laforest, an Arctic expert at World Wildlife Fund Canada in Montreal. “There is nowhere else for these species to go. They’re literally being squeezed into the Last Ice Area.”

The Last Ice Area extends across national borders, making it especially challenging to protect the last summer sea ice in the Arctic. The extent of the ice is predicted to shrink considerably by 2039.WWF CanadaThe Last Ice Area extends across national borders, making it especially challenging to protect the last summer sea ice in the Arctic. The extent of the ice is predicted to shrink considerably by 2039.WWF Canada

The last stronghold of summer ice provides an opportunity to create a floating sanctuary —an Arctic ark if you will — for the polar bears and many other species that depend on summer ice to survive. For over a decade, WWF Canada and a coalition of researchers and Indigenous communities have lobbied for the area to be protected from another threat: development by industries that may be interested in the region’s oil and mineral resources.

“The tragedy would be if we had an area where these animals could survive this bottleneck, but they don’t because it’s been developed commercially,” Newton says.

But for Laforest, protecting the Last Ice Area is not only a question of safeguarding arctic creatures. Sea ice is also an important tool in climate regulation, as the white surface reflects sunlight back into space, helping to cool the planet. In a vicious cycle, losing sea ice helps speed up warming, which in turn melts more ice.

And for the people who call the Arctic home, sea ice is crucial for food security, transportation and cultural survival, wrote Inuit Circumpolar Council Chair Okalik Eegeesiak in a 2017 article for the United Nations. “Our entire cultures and identity are based on free movement on land, sea ice and the Arctic Ocean,” Eegeesiak wrote. “Our highway is sea ice.” 

The efforts of these groups have borne some fruit. In 2019, the Canadian government moved to set aside nearly a third of the Last Ice Area as protected spaces called marine preserves. Until 2024, all commercial activity within the boundaries of the preserves is forbidden, with provisions for Indigenous peoples. Conservationists are now asking these marine preserves to be put under permanent protection.

Rifts in the ice

However, there are some troubling signs that the sea ice in the region is already precarious. Most worrisome was the appearance in May 2020 of a Rhode Island—sized rift in the ice at the heart of the Last Ice Area. Kent Moore, a geophysicist at the University of Toronto, says that these unusual events may become more frequent as the ice thins. This suggests that the Last Ice Area may not be as resilient as we thought, he says.  

This is something that worries Laforest. He and others are skeptical that reversing climate change and repopulating the Arctic with ice-dependent species will be possible. “I would love to live in a world where we eventually reverse warming and promote sea ice regeneration,” he says. “But stabilization seems like a daunting task on its own.”

Still, hope remains. “All the models show that if you were to bring temperatures back down, sea ice will revert to its historical pattern within several years,” says Newton.

To save the last sea ice — and the creatures that depend on it — removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere will be essential, says oceanographer Stephanie Pfirman of Arizona State University in Tempe, who coauthored the study on sea ice with Newton. Technology to capture carbon, and prevent more carbon from entering the atmosphere, already exists. The largest carbon capture plant is in Iceland, but projects like that one have yet to be implemented on a major scale.

Without such intervention, the Arctic is set to lose the last of its summer ice before the end of the century. It would mean the end of life on the ice. But Pfirman, who suggested making the Last Ice Area a World Heritage Site in 2008, says that humankind has undergone big economic and social changes — like the kind needed to reduce emissions and prevent warming — in the past. “I was in Germany when the [Berlin] wall came down, and people hadn’t expected that to happen,” she says.

Protecting the Last Ice Area is about buying time to protect sea ice and species, says Pfirman. The longer we can hold on to summer sea ice, she says, the better chance we have at bringing arctic species —from plankton to polar bears — back from the brink.    More

Global temperatures are rising and so, it seems, is part of the sky.

Atmosphere readings collected by weather balloons in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 40 years reveal that climate change is pushing the upper boundary of the troposphere — the slice of sky closest to the ground — steadily upward at a rate of 50 to 60 meters per decade, researchers report November 5 in Science Advances.

Temperature is the driving force behind this change, says Jane Liu, an environmental scientist at the University of Toronto. The troposphere varies in height around the world, reaching as high as 20 kilometers in the tropics and as low as seven kilometers near the poles. During the year, the upper boundary of the troposphere — called the tropopause — naturally rises and falls with the seasons as air expands in the heat and contracts in the cold. But as greenhouse gases trap more and more heat in the atmosphere, the troposphere is expanding higher into the atmosphere (SN: 10/26/21).

Liu and her colleagues found that the tropopause rose an average of about 200 meters in height from 1980 to 2020. Nearly all weather occurs in the troposphere, but it’s unlikely that this shift will have on a big effect on weather, the researchers say. Still, this research is an important reminder of the impact of climate change on our world, Liu says.

“We see signs of global warming around us, in retreating glaciers and rising sea levels,” she says. “Now, we see it in the height of the troposphere.” More

The biggest beasts to walk the Earth had humble beginnings. The first dinosaurs were cat-sized, lurking in the shadows, just waiting for their moment. That moment came when four major pulses of volcanic activity changed the climate in a geologic blink of an eye, causing a 2-million-year-long rainy spell that coincided with dinos rising to dominance, a new study suggests.

Clues found in sediments buried deep beneath an ancient lake basin in China link the volcanic eruptions with climate swings and environmental changes that created a globe-spanning hot and humid oasis in the middle of the hot and dry Triassic Period, researchers report in the Oct. 5 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. During this geologically brief rainy period 234 million to 232 million years ago, called the Carnian Pluvial Episode, dinosaurs started evolving into the hulking and diverse creatures that would dominate the landscape for the next 166 million years.

Previous research has noted the jump in global temperatures, humidity and rainfall during this time period, as well as a changeover in land and sea life. But these studies lacked detail on what caused these changes, says Jason Hilton, a paleobotanist at the University of Birmingham in England.

So Hilton and his colleagues turned to a several-hundred-meter-long core of lake-bottom sediments drawn from the Jiyuan Basin for answers. The core contained four distinct layers of sediments that included volcanic ash that the team dated to between 234 million and 232 million years ago, matching the timing of the Carnian Pluvial Episode. Within those layers, the team also found mercury, a proxy for volcanic eruptions. “Mercury entered the lake from a mix of atmospheric pollution, volcanic ash and also being washed in from surrounding land that had elevated levels of mercury from volcanism,” Hilton says.

The rock record from 234 million to 232 million years ago, captured in these cores from an ancient lakebed in northern China, shows signs of wet weather almost everywhere. The cores also show evidence of volcanic activity. Jing Lu

Further evidence for the link between volcanism and environmental change during the Carnian Pluvial Episode came from corresponding layers in the core that showed different types of carbon, indicating four massive releases of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Finally, microfossils and pollens changed within the same core section, from species that prefer drier climates to ones that tend to grow in warm and humid climates.

The reconstructed history suggests that the volcanic pulses injected huge amounts of CO₂ into the atmosphere, says coauthor Jacopo Dal Corso, a geologist at the University of Leeds in England. That boosted temperatures and intensified the hydrologic cycle, enhancing rainfall and increasing runoff into lakes, he says. At the same time, terrestrial plants evolved, with humidity-loving flora becoming predominant. As the rains created wet environments, turtles, large amphibians called metoposaurids — and dinosaurs — began to thrive.

Together, these diverse lines of evidence reveal that the Carnian Pluvial Episode was actually four distinct pulses of significant environmental change — each triggered by massive volcanic eruptions, Dal Corso says.

Pollens, spores and algae collected from the core sample from the Carnian Pluvial Episode reveal a change from more arid-loving plants and animals to more humid-loving plants and animals.Peixin Zhang

The mercury and carbon data together suggest the increase in mercury came from a “major source of volcanism that was capable of impacting the global carbon cycle,” rather than local eruptions, the team writes. That volcanism likely came from the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province eruption in what is now British Columbia and Alaska, which has previously, but tenuously, been linked to the Carnian Pluvial Episode. If true, it means the Wrangellia eruption occurred in pulses, rather than one sustained eruption.  

This paper marks the “first time that mercury and carbon isotope data are so well correlated across the Carnian Pluvial Episode,” says Andrea Marzoli, an igneous petrologist at the University of Padua in Italy who has studied Wrangellia but was not involved in this research.  “The authors make a strong argument in favor of volcanically induced global climate change pulses.” However, Marzoli notes, “the link to Wrangellia is still weak, simply because we don’t know the age of Wrangellia.”

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Alastair Ruffell, a forensic geologist at Queen’s University Belfast in Ireland not involved in this study, agrees, saying he’d like to see more evidence of cause and effect between Wrangellia and the environmental changes. This study offers some of the best proxies and data from terrestrial sources to date, but more terrestrial records of the Carnian Pluvial Episode are needed, he says, to “understand what this actually looked like on the ground.” 

The climate changes marked a tipping point for life that couldn’t adjust, and those groups went extinct. Animals like dinosaurs and plants like cycads, says Ruffell, were “waiting in the wings” to seize their opportunity. A similar cycle of volcanic activity and environmental change starting about 184 million years ago may have paved the way for the biggest of all dinos, long-necked sauropods, to lumber into dominance (SN: 11/17/20). More

In the next week or so, the sea ice floating atop the Arctic Ocean will shrink to its smallest size this year, as summer-warmed waters eat away at the ice’s submerged edges.

Record lows for sea ice levels will probably not be broken this year, scientists say. In 2020, the ice covered 3.74 million square kilometers of the Arctic at its lowest point, coming nail-bitingly close to an all-time record low. Currently, sea ice is present in just under 5 million square kilometers of Arctic waters, putting it on track to become the 10th-lowest extent of sea ice in the area since satellite record keeping began in 1979. It’s an unexpected finish considering that in early summer, sea ice hit a record low for that time of year.

The surprise comes in part because the best current statistical- and physics-based forecasting tools can closely predict sea ice extent only a few weeks in advance, but the accuracy of long-range forecasts falters. Now, a new tool that uses artificial intelligence to create sea ice forecasts promises to boost their accuracy — and can do the analysis relatively quickly, researchers report August 26 in Nature Communications.

IceNet, a sea ice forecasting system developed by the British Antarctic Survey, or BAS, is “95 percent accurate in forecasting sea ice two months ahead — higher than the leading physics-based model SEAS5 — while running 2,000 times faster,” says Tom Andersson, a data scientist with BAS’s Artificial Intelligence lab. Whereas SEAS5 takes about six hours on a supercomputer to produce a forecast, IceNet can do the same in less than 10 seconds on a laptop. The system also shows a surprising ability to predict anomalous ice events — unusual highs or lows — up to four months in advance, Andersson and his colleagues found.

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Tracking sea ice is crucial to keeping tabs on the impacts of climate change. While that’s more of a long game, the advanced notice provided by IceNet could have more immediate benefits, too. For instance, it could give scientists the lead time needed to assess, and plan for, the risks of Arctic fires or wildlife-human conflicts, and it could provide data that Indigenous communities need to make economic and environmental decisions.

Arctic sea ice extent has steadily declined in all seasons since satellite records began in 1979 (SN: 9/25/19). Scientists have been trying to improve sea ice forecasts for decades, but success has proved elusive. “Forecasting sea ice is really hard because sea ice interacts in complex ways with the atmosphere above and ocean below,” Andersson says.

[embedded content]
In 2020, the sea ice in the Arctic shrank to its second lowest extent since satellite monitoring began in 1979. This animation uses those observations to show the change in sea ice coverage from March 5, when the ice was at its maximum, through September 15, when the ice reached its lowest point. The yellow line represents the average minimum extent from 1981 to 2010. Current forecasting tools can accurately predict these changes weeks in advance. A new AI-based tool can predict these changes with nearly 95 percent accuracy several months in advance.

Existing forecast tools put the laws of physics into computer code to predict how sea ice will change in the future. But partly due to uncertainties in the physical systems governing sea ice, these models struggle to produce accurate long-range forecasts.

Using a process called deep learning, Andersson and his colleagues loaded observational sea ice data from 1979 to 2011 and climate simulations covering 1850 to 2100 to train IceNet how to predict the state of future sea ice by processing the data from the past.

To determine the accuracy of its forecasts, the team compared IceNet’s outputs to the observed sea ice extent from 2012 to 2020, and to the forecasts made by SEAS5, the widely cited tool used by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. IceNet was as much as 2.9 percent more accurate than SEAS5, corresponding to a further 360,000 square kilometers of ocean being correctly labeled as “ice” or “no ice.”

What’s more, in 2012, a sudden crash in summer sea ice extent heralded a new record low extent in September of that year. In running through past data, IceNet saw the dip coming months in advance. SEAS5 had inklings too but its projections that far out were off by a few hundred thousand square kilometers.

“This is a significant step forward in sea ice forecasting, boosting our ability to produce accurate forecasts that were typically not thought possible and run them thousands of times faster,” says Andersson. He believes it’s possible that IceNet has better learned the physical processes that determine the evolution of sea ice from the training data while physics-based models still struggle to understand this information.

“These machine learning techniques have only begun contributing to [forecasting] in the last couple years, and they’ve been doing amazingly well,” says Uma Bhatt, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute who was not involved in the new study. She also leads the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a group of multidisciplinary scientists working to improve forecasting.

Bhatt says that good seasonal ice forecasts are important for assessing the risk of Arctic wildfires, which are tied strongly to the presence of sea ice (SN: 6/23/20). “Knowing where the sea ice is going to be in the spring could potentially help you figure out where you’re likely to have fires — in Siberia, for example, as soon as the sea ice moves away from the shore, the land can warm up very quickly and help set the stage for a bad fire season.”

Any improvement in sea ice forecasting can also help economic, safety and environmental planning in northern and Indigenous communities. For example, tens of thousands of walruses haul out on land to rest when the sea ice disappears (SN: 10/2/14). Human disturbances can trigger deadly stampedes and lead to high walrus mortality. With seasonal ice forecasts, biologists can anticipate rapid ice loss and manage haul-out sites in advance by limiting human access to those locations.

Still, limitations remain. At four months of lead time, the system was about 91 percent accurate in predicting the location of September’s ice edge.IceNet, like other forecasting systems, struggles to produce accurate long-range forecasts for late summer due, in part, to what scientists call the “spring predictability barrier.” It’s crucial to know the condition of the sea ice at the start of the spring melting season to be able to forecast end-of-summer conditions.

Another limit is “the fact that the weather is so variable,” says Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo. Though sea ice seemed primed to set a new annual record low at the start of July, the speed of ice loss ultimately slowed due to cool atmospheric temperatures. “We know that sea ice responds very strongly to summer weather patterns, but we can’t get good weather predictions. Weather predictability is about 10 days in advance.” More

When smoke rises from wildfires in the western United States, it pummels clouds with tiny airborne particles. What happens next with these clouds has been largely unstudied. But during the 2018 wildfire season, researchers embarked on a series of seven research flights, including over the Pacific Northwest, to help fill this gap.

Using airborne instruments to analyze small cumulus clouds affected by the smoke, the scientists found that these clouds contained, on average, five times as many water droplets as unaffected clouds. That in itself was not a huge surprise; it’s known that organic and inorganic particles in smoke can serve as tiny nuclei for forming droplets (SN: 12/15/20). But the sheer abundance of droplets in the affected clouds astounded the team. 

Counterintuitively, those numerous droplets didn’t make the clouds more likely to produce rain. In fact, the opposite occurred. Because the droplets were about half as big as those found in a typical cloud, they were unlikely to collide and merge with enough other droplets to result in rain. The chances of rain were “virtually zero,” the researchers write in the August Geophysical Research Letters.

The new research suggests that wildfires could lead to clouds producing less rain in the U.S. West, feeding into drought conditions and potentially increasing future wildfire risk.

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But the environmental dynamics involved are complex, says Cynthia Twohy. She’s a San Diego–based atmospheric scientist at NorthWest Research Associates, a research organization specializing in geophysical and space sciences headquartered in Redmond, Wash. For instance, Twohy and her colleagues found that “the ratio of light-absorbing to light-scattering particles in the smoke was somewhat lower than measured in many prior studies,” she says.  

“The take-home message is that while other studies have shown wildfire smoke has an absorbing (warming) influence that can be important for cloud formation and development, these impacts may be less in the western U.S., because the smoke is not as dark,” Twohy says. The impact of the lighter smoke is still an open question. “It’s just another way that smoke-cloud interactions are a wild card in the region.”  

The team used onboard probes to sample clouds affected by wildfire smoke and compare them to their more pristine counterparts. The probes measured how many cloud droplets were present in the samples, the size range of those droplets and the liquid water content of the clouds.

A special tube mounted on the exterior of the plane to collect and evaporate cloud droplets was used to “reveal the particles that the droplets were condensed on,” says Robert Yokelson, an atmospheric chemist at the University of Montana in Missoula who was not involved with the research. This process enabled the researchers to confirm what the original smoke particles were made of, a technique that Yokelson calls “neat.”

The analysis detected the amounts of carbon, oxygen, nitrogen, sulfur and potassium found in residual particles evaporated from cloud droplets. These elements were present in similar amounts to those found in smoke particles sampled from below the clouds, “implying that the cloud droplets also formed on smoke particles,” Twohy says.

Previous studies conducted in the Amazon have shown that “smoke will make the cloud droplets smaller and more numerous,” thereby reducing rainfall, Yokelson says. But this study provides robust evidence that the phenomenon isn’t isolated to the Amazon. It echoes the results of a much smaller 1974 study of smoke-filled clouds over the western United States, providing a crucial present-day snapshot of the challenges facing the region.

Wildfires in the western United States have been breaking records in recent years — increasing in number and size due to climate change — a trend that scientists think will get worse as the globe continues to warm (SN: 12/21/20). As a result, Twohy says, it’s increasingly important that researchers continue to monitor these fires’ influence on the atmosphere. More

When sea level drops far below the present-day level, the island volcano Santorini in Greece gets ready to rumble.

A comparison of the activity of the volcano, which is now partially collapsed, with sea levels over the last 360,000 years reveals that when the sea level dips more than 40 meters below the present-day level, it triggers a fit of eruptions. During times of higher sea level, the volcano is quiet, researchers report online August 2 in Nature Geoscience.

Other volcanoes around the globe are probably similarly influenced by sea levels, the researchers say. Most of the world’s volcanic systems are in or near oceans.

“It’s hard to see why a coastal or island volcano would not be affected by sea level,” says Iain Stewart, a geoscientist at the Royal Scientific Society of Jordan in Amman, who was not involved in the work. Accounting for these effects could make volcano hazard forecasting more accurate.

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Santorini consists of a ring of islands surrounding the central tip of a volcano poking out of the Aegean Sea. The entire volcano used to be above water, but a violent eruption around 1600 B.C. caused the volcano to cave in partially, forming a lagoon. That particular eruption is famous for potentially dooming the Minoan civilization and inspiring the legend of the lost city of Atlantis (SN: 2/1/12).

To investigate how sea level might influence the volcano, researchers created a computer simulation of Santorini’s magma chamber, which sits about four kilometers beneath the surface of the volcano. In the simulation, when the sea level dropped at least 40 meters below the present-day level, the crust above the magma chamber splintered. “That gives an opportunity for the magma that’s stored under the volcano to move up through these fractures and make its way to the surface,” says study coauthor Christopher Satow, a physical geographer at Oxford Brookes University in England.

According to the simulation, it should take about 13,000 years for those cracks to reach the surface and awaken the volcano. After the water rises again, it should take about 11,000 years for the cracks to close and eruptions to stop.

When the sea drops at least 40 meters below the present-day level, the crust beneath the Santorini volcano (illustrated) starts to crack. As the sea level drops even further over thousands of years, those cracks spread to the surface, bringing up magma that feeds volcanic eruptions.Oxford Brookes University

It may seem counterintuitive that lowering the amount of water atop the magma chamber would cause the crust to splinter. Satow compares the scenario to wrapping your hands around an inflated balloon, where the rubber is Earth’s crust and your hands’ inward pressure is the weight of the ocean. As someone else pumps air into the balloon — like magma building up under Earth’s crust — the pressure of your hands helps prevent the balloon from popping. “As soon as you start to release the pressure with your hands, [like] taking the sea level down, the balloon starts to expand,” Satow says, and ultimately the balloon breaks.

Satow’s team tested the predictions of the simulation by comparing the Santorini Volcano’s eruption history — preserved in the rock layers of the islands surrounding the central volcano tip — with evidence of past sea levels from marine sediments. All but three of the volcano’s 211 well-dated eruptions in the last 360,000 years happened during periods of low sea level, as the simulation predicted. Such periods of low sea level occurred when more of Earth’s water was locked up in glaciers during ice ages.

“It’s really intriguing and interesting, and perhaps not surprising, given that other studies have shown that volcanoes are sensitive to changes in their stress state,” says Emilie Hooft, a geophysicist at the University of Oregon in Eugene, who wasn’t involved in the work. Volcanoes in Iceland, for instance, have shown an uptick in eruptions after overlying glaciers have melted, relieving the volcanic systems of the weight of the ice.

Volcanoes around the world are likely subject to the effects of sea level, Satow says, though how much probably varies. “Some will be very sensitive to sea level changes, and for others there will be almost no impact at all.” These effects will depend on the depth of the magma chambers feeding into each volcano and the properties of the surrounding crust.

But if sea level controls the activity of any volcano in or near the ocean, at least to an extent, “you’d expect all these volcanoes to be in sync with one another,” Satow says, “which would be incredible.”

As for Santorini, given that the last time sea level was 40 meters below the present-day level was about 11,000 years ago — and sea level is continuing to rise due to climate change — Satow’s team expects the volcano to enter a period of relative quiet right about now (SN: 3/14/12). But two major eruptions in the volcano’s history did happen amid high sea levels, the researchers say, so future violent eruptions aren’t completely off the table. More