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    Irrigation may be shifting Earth’s rotational axis

    Runoff from irrigation has moved so much water from land to sea that Earth’s rotation might have measurably shifted.

    Computer simulations suggest that from 1993 through 2010, irrigation alone nudged the North Pole by about 78 centimeters, researchers reported in the June 28 Geophysical Research Letters. That would make irrigation the second largest contributor to polar drift after the ongoing rebound of Earth’s surface following the retreat of glaciers since the last ice age.

    Researchers have long known that the North Pole wanders across the Arctic seascape in a circle a few meters in diameter. Seasonal weather patterns cause part of this cyclical drift, and long-term variations in the temperature and salinity of ocean water help drive a 14-month-long oscillation dubbed the Chandler wobble (SN: 4/15/03).

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    But those repeated vacillations aren’t the only things that move the pole around, says Clark Wilson, a geophysicist at the University of Texas at Austin. There is also a subtler, noncyclic polar drift caused by the movement of land-based water to the sea from melting glaciers worldwide and from ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, he says.

    Runoff from irrigation also plays a role — and a surprisingly large one at that.

    In the first study to try and tease out the contributions of these water movements, Wilson and colleagues used computer simulations to assess how the impoundment of water behind dams, glacial melt, irrigation and several other factors might affect polar drift. Previous studies have suggested that irrigation shifted about 2 trillion metric tons of water from land-based aquifers to the oceans from 1993 through 2010 — enough to raise global sea level more than 6 millimeters.

    Although seemingly minuscule, that redistribution of water was enough to shift the North Pole just over four centimeters each year on average during that period, the team found.

    When all sources of water movement are considered — including the runoff of meltwater from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets — the North Pole drifted about 1.6 meters toward the east coast of Greenland in that time. The impact of irrigation was mostly to nudge the pole generally east of where it would have gone otherwise, the team found. Without irrigation, the pole would have drifted nearly the same amount, but toward the center of Greenland instead.

    Unlike other drivers that vary over the course of a year, Wilson says, the polar drift due to irrigation is permanent and probably growing each year.

    “The team’s findings all make sense,” says Jay Famiglietti, a hydrologist at Arizona State University in Tempe. “It’s important to realize that water is heavy, and when it moves around it’s going to affect Earth’s rotation.”

    Besides shifting the North Pole, large-scale irrigation can also affect local and regional climates. Studies have shown that irrigation cools temperatures and boosts humidity in California’s Central Valley, as well as increasing rainfall in the Four Corners area of the American Southwest and enhancing flow volumes in the Colorado River (SN: 1/22/13). More

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    A massive cavern beneath a West Antarctic glacier is teeming with life

    The coastal plain of the Kamb Ice Stream, a West Antarctic glacier, hardly seems like a coast at all. Stand in this place, 800 kilometers from the South Pole, and you see nothing but flat ice extending in every direction. The ice is some 700 meters thick and stretches for hundreds of kilometers off the coastline, floating on the water. On clear summer days, the ice reflects the sunlight with such ferocity that it inflicts sunburn in the insides of your nostrils. It might seem hard to believe, but hidden beneath this ice is a muddy tidal marsh, where a burbling river wends its way into the ocean.

    Until recently, no human had ever glimpsed that secret landscape. Scientists had merely inferred its existence from the faint reflections of radar and seismic waves. But in the closing days of 2021, a team of scientists from New Zealand melted a narrow hole through the glacier’s ice and lowered in a camera. They had hoped that their hole would intersect with the river, which they believed had melted a channel up into the ice — a vast water-filled cavity, nearly tall enough to hold the Empire State Building and half as long as Manhattan. On December 29, Craig Stevens finally got his first look inside. It is a moment that he will always remember.

    Stevens is a physical oceanographer with New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in Wellington. He spent 90 anxious minutes that day in Antarctica with his head buried ostrich-style under a thick down jacket to block the sunlight that would otherwise obscure his computer monitor. There, he watched live video from the camera as it descended into the hole. Icy circular walls scrolled past, reminiscent of a cosmic wormhole. Suddenly, at a depth of 502 meters, the walls widened out.

    Stevens shouted for a colleague to halt the winch lowering the camera. He stared at the screen as the camera rotated idly on its cable. Its floodlights raked across a ceiling of glacial ice — a startling sight — scalloped into delicate crests and waves. It resembled the dreamy undulations that might take millennia to form in a limestone cavern.

    The Kamb Ice Stream is located on the coast of West Antarctica and flows into the Ross Ice Shelf, a slab of floating ice hundreds of meters thick. The site of the newly discovered cavern is shown as a yellow box.A. WHITEFORD ET AL/JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH: EARTH SURFACE 2022

    “The interior of a cathedral,” says Stevens. A cathedral not only in beauty, but also in size. As the winch restarted, the camera journeyed downward for another half hour, through 242 meters of sunless water. Bits of reflective silt stirred up by currents streamed back down like snowflakes through the black void.

    Stevens and his colleagues spent the next two weeks lowering instruments into the void. Their observations revealed that this coastal river has melted a massive, steep-walled cavern cutting as far as 350 meters up into the overlying ice. The cavern extends for at least 10 kilometers and appears to be boring inland, farther upstream, into the ice sheet with each passing year.

    This cavity offers researchers a window into the network of subglacial rivers and lakes that extends hundreds of kilometers inland in this part of West Antarctica. It’s an otherworldly environment that humans have barely explored and is laden with evidence of Antarctica’s warm, distant past, when it was still inhabited by a few stunted trees.

    Researchers got their first glimpse into the hidden landscape in late 2021, when they drilled through 500 meters of ice and lowered in instruments to observe the cavern below (borehole shown).C. STEVENS/NIWA (CC BY-ND)

    One of the biggest surprises came as the camera reached bottom that day. Stevens gazed in disbelief as dozens of orange blurs swam and darted on his monitor — evidence that this place, roughly 500 kilometers from the open, sunlit ocean, is nonetheless bustling with marine animals.

    Seeing them was “just complete shock,” says Huw Horgan, a glaciologist formerly at the Victoria University of Wellington who led the drilling expedition.

    Horgan, who recently moved to ETH Zurich, wants to know how much water is flowing through the cavern and how its growth will impact the Kamb Ice Stream over time. Kamb is unlikely to fall apart anytime soon; this part of West Antarctica is not immediately threatened by climate change. But the cavern might still offer clues to how subglacial water could affect more vulnerable glaciers.

    What’s beneath Antarctica’s ice sheet?

    Scientists have long surmised that a veneer of liquid water sits beneath much of the ice sheet covering Antarctica. This water forms as the bottom of the ice slowly melts, several penny-thicknesses per year, due to heat seeping from the Earth’s interior. In 2007, Helen Amanda Fricker, a glaciologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif., reported evidence that this water pools into large lakes beneath the ice and can flood quickly from one lake to another (SN: 6/17/06, p. 382).

    Fricker was looking at data from NASA’s Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite, or ICESat, which measures the height of the ice surface by reflecting a laser off of it. The surface at several spots in West Antarctica seemed to bob up and down, rising and falling by as much as nine meters over a couple of years. She interpreted these active spots as subglacial lakes. As they filled and then spilled out their water, the overlying ice rose and fell. Fricker’s team and several others eventually found over 350 of these lakes scattered around Antarctica, including a couple dozen beneath Kamb and its neighboring glacier, the Whillans Ice Stream.

    The lakes provoked great interest because they were expected to harbor life and might provide insights about what sorts of organisms could survive on other worlds — deep within the ice-covered moons of Jupiter and Saturn, for instance. The layers of sediment in Antarctica’s lakes might also offer glimpses into the continent’s ancient climate, ecosystems and ice cover. Teams funded by Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States attempted to drill into subglacial lakes. In 2013, the U.S.-led team succeeded, melting through 800 meters of ice and tapping into a reservoir called Subglacial Lake Whillans. It was teeming with microbes, 130,000 cells per milliliter of lake water (SN: 9/20/14, p. 10).

    Horgan helped map Lake Whillans before drilling began. But by the time the lake was breached, he and others were becoming intrigued with another facet of the subglacial landscape — the rivers thought to carry water from one lake to another, and eventually to the ocean.

    Finding these hidden rivers requires complicated guesswork. Their flow paths are influenced not only by the subglacial topography, but also by differences in the thickness of the overlying ice. Water moves from places where the ice is thick (and the pressure high) to places where it is thinner (and the pressure lower) — meaning that rivers can sometimes run uphill.

    By 2015, scientists had mapped the likely paths of several dozen subglacial rivers. But drilling into them still seemed farfetched. The rivers are narrow targets and their exact locations often uncertain. But around that time, Horgan got a lucky break.

    While examining a satellite photo of the Kamb Ice Stream, he noticed a wrinkle in the pixelated tapestry of the image. The wrinkle resembled a long, shallow trough in the surface of the ice, as if the ice had sagged from melting beneath. The trough sat several kilometers from the hypothetical path of one subglacial river. Horgan believed that it marked the spot where that river flowed over the coastal plain and spilled into the ice-covered sea.

    In 2016, while visiting the area for an unrelated research project, Horgan and his companions detoured briefly to the surface trough to take radar measurements. Sure enough, they found a void under the ice, filled with liquid water. Horgan began making plans to study it more closely. He would return twice in the next few years, once to map the river in detail and a second time to drill into it. What he found greatly exceeded his expectations.

    Scientists map a subglacial landscape

    Horgan and graduate student Arran Whiteford of the Victoria University of Wellington visited the lower Kamb Ice Stream to map the river in December 2019.

    After weeks on the Antarctic ice sheet, they’d grown accustomed to its monotonous flat landscape, their perception sensitized to even tiny ups and downs. In this context, the surface trough “looked like this massive chasm,” Whiteford says, “like an amphitheater” — even though it slanted no more dramatically than a rolling cornfield in Iowa.

    It was a week of scientific drudgery, towing the ice-penetrating radar behind a snowmobile along a series of straight, parallel lines that crisscrossed the trough to map the shape of the river channel under the ice.

    Horgan and Whiteford worked up to 12 hours per day, occasionally trading positions. One person drove the snowmobile, straining his thumb on the throttle to maintain a constant 8 kilometers per hour. Two sleds hissed along behind. One held a transmitter that fired radar waves into the glacier below; the other held an antenna that received the signal reflected back off the bottom of the ice. The second person rode on the sled with the antenna, his eyes on a bouncing laptop screen making sure that the radar was functioning.

    Researchers deploy instruments through a borehole into the water-filled cavern hidden beneath the Kamb Ice Stream.H. HORGAN

    Each evening they huddled in their tent, reviewing their radar traces. The river channel appeared far more dramatic than the gentle dip atop the ice suggested. Below their boots sat a vast water-filled cavern with steep sides like a train tunnel, 200 meters to a kilometer wide and cutting as much as 50 percent of the way up through the glacier. The more they looked, the more it resembled a river. “It kind of meanders downstream,” Whiteford says.

    All told, Whiteford made two weeklong visits to the trough, snowmobiling over from another camp 50 kilometers away. The first time he was accompanied by Horgan, and the second time by another graduate student, Martin Forbes.

    After returning home to New Zealand in January 2020, Whiteford examined a series of old satellite images. They showed that the surface trough — and hence, the cavern — had begun forming at least 35 years before, starting with a blip at the very mouth of the river, where it ran into the ocean. That blip had gradually lengthened, reaching progressively farther inland, or upstream. Whiteford and Horgan reported the observations in late 2022 in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface — along with their theory about how the cavern formed.

    In other parts of Antarctica where the ice sheet protrudes off the coastline, scientists have found that the ice’s underside is often insulated from the ocean heat by a buoyant layer of colder, fresher meltwater. That protective layer is sometimes only a couple of meters thick. But Horgan and Whiteford suspect that the turbulence of the subglacial river flowing into the ocean stirs up that protective layer, causing seawater — a few tenths of a degree warmer than the subglacial water — to swirl up into contact with the ice. This causes an area of concentrated melt right at the river’s mouth, creating a small cavity where warm seawater can intrude further.

    In this way, says Horgan, the focal point of melting is “stepping back over time.” And the cavern gradually burrows farther upstream into the ice.

    Whiteford used a different set of satellite measurements — which measured the rate at which the ice’s surface sank over time — to determine how quickly the ice was melting in the cavern below. Based on this, he estimated that in the upstream end of the cavern, the ice (currently 350 to 500 meters thick over the channel) was melting and thinning 35 meters per year. That’s an astronomical rate. It’s 135 times what has been measured 50 kilometers southwest of the cavern, where the ice floats on the ocean. The water temperature is probably similar at both locations. But the turbulence caused by the river transfers the water’s heat far more efficiently into the ice.

    Horgan thinks that the cavern at Kamb also owes its dramatic height to another factor. Glaciers in this part of West Antarctica generally flow several hundred meters per year. So the melt caused by a flowing river beneath, over years or decades, would normally be spread out over a long swath of ice. This would erode a shallow channel rather than a deep cleft. But Kamb is an oddball. Around 150 years ago, it stopped moving almost entirely due to the cyclical interplay of melting and freezing at its base. It now creeps forward only about 10 meters per year. The melting is thus concentrated, year after year, in almost the same spot.

    Back in 2020, all of this was still conjecture. But if Horgan and his colleagues could return, drill into the cavern and lower instruments into it, they could confirm how it formed. By studying the water, sediment and microbes flowing out of it, they could also learn a lot about Antarctica’s vast subglacial landscape.

    The West Antarctic Ice Sheet covers an area three times the size of the Colorado River drainage basin, which sprawls across Arizona, Utah, Colorado and parts of four other states. To date, humans have observed only a tiny swath of this underworld, smaller than a basketball court — represented by several dozen narrow boreholes scattered across the region, where scientists have grabbed a bit of mud from the bottom or sometimes lowered in a camera.

    Horgan was eager to explore more. With New Zealand already melting boreholes through ice floating on the ocean, drilling into this coastal river seemed like a natural next step.

    How did the hidden cavern form?

    On December 4, 2021, a pair of caterpillar-tracked PistenBullys arrived at the place where Horgan and Whiteford had visited two years before. The tractors had traveled for 16 days from New Zealand’s Scott Base on the edge of the continent, growling across a thousand kilometers of floating ice as they towed a convoy of sleds packed with 90 metric tons of food, fuel and scientific gear. The convoy lumbered around to the upstream end of the valley and stopped.

    Workers erected a tent the size of a small aircraft hangar, and inside it, assembled a series of water heaters, pumps and a kilometer of hose — a machine called a hot water drill. Using shovels and a small mechanized scooper, they dumped 54 tons of snow into a tank and melted it. The workers then jetted that hot water through the hose, using it to melt a narrow hole, no wider than a dinner plate, through 500 meters of ice — and down through the domed ceiling of the cavern.

    The sight of animals inside the cavern generated instant excitement among Horgan, Stevens and the other people at camp. But those first images were blurry, leaving people unsure of what the orange, bumblebee-sized critters actually were.

    Workers next lowered an instrument down the borehole to measure the water temperature and salinity inside the cavern. They found the top 50 meters of water colder and fresher than what lay below — confirming that seawater was flowing in along the bottom and a more buoyant mixture of saltwater and freshwater was flowing out along the top. The cavern, says Stevens, “is operating quite like an estuary.”

    But those measurements also presented a mystery: The water in the top of the cavern was only about 1 percent less salty than the seawater in its bottom, suggesting that the amount of freshwater flowing in through the river was “quite small,” says Stevens. It’s akin to a shallow creek that a young kid might splash around in. He and Horgan doubted that the turbulence caused by this small flow, even over 35 years, could melt the entire cavern — roughly a cubic kilometer of ice.

    A likely answer came from a set of samples collected from the floor of the cavern. Gavin Dunbar, a sedimentologist at the Victoria University of Wellington, lowered a hollow plastic cylinder down the hole in hopes of retrieving a core. As he and graduate student Linda Balfoort hoisted the cylinder back up, they found it streaked and filled with chocolaty mud — a strange sight in this world of pure white, where not a speck of rock or dirt can be seen for hundreds of kilometers.

    As Dunbar and Balfoort X-rayed and analyzed the cores months later, back in New Zealand, their peculiarities became obvious: They were unlike anything that Dunbar had ever encountered in this part of the world.

    Every core that Dunbar had ever seen from the seafloors near this part of Antarctica consisted of a chaotic jumble of sand, silt and gravel — a material called diamict, formed as the ice sheet advances and retreats over the seafloor, plowing and mixing it like a rototiller. But in these cores, Dunbar and Balfoort saw distinct layers. Bands of coarse, gravely material were interspersed with layers of fine, silty mud.

    That alternating pattern resembled samples from steep seafloor canyons off the coast of New Zealand, where earthquakes sometimes trigger underwater landslides that sweep for many kilometers downhill. Each flood deposits a single layer of chunky material.

    Dunbar believes that something similar happened under the Kamb Ice Stream, possibly in the last few decades. A series of fast-moving torrents gushed through the river channel carrying big gravelly chunks from somewhere upstream that later settled on the cavern floor. “Each of these [coarse layers] represents minutes to hours of sediment deposition” that occurred during a single flood, he says. And the fine, silty layers would have been laid down over years or decades in between the floods, when the river flowed languidly along.

    These subglacial floods could explain how this small river carved such a large cavern, Stevens says. Those floods could have been 100 to 1,000 times as large as the flow rates that were measured during the 2021–22 field season.

    No one knows when those events happened, but scientists using satellites to study subglacial lakes have spotted at least one candidate. In 2013, a lake 20 kilometers upstream from the cavern, called KT3, disgorged an estimated 60 million cubic meters of water — enough to fill 24,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools.

    Scientists would love to know whether that flood actually passed through this cavern. “Connecting this upstream to the lake system would be extremely cool,” says Matthew Siegfried, a glaciologist at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden, who coauthored one of the reports documenting the 2013 flood.

    Studying the outflow of this river could also answer other questions about the subglacial landscape upstream. “The vast majority of our knowledge of subglacial lakes comes from surface observations from space,” Siegfried says. But those satellite records, of ice bobbing up and down, permit only indirect estimates of how much water is flowing through. It’s possible, for example, that a lot of water passes through the lakes even when the ice above isn’t moving.

    Scientists could also learn about the subglacial landscape by studying the sediment washed downstream. When Dunbar and his colleagues examined the coarse material from their cores, they found it full of microscopic fossils: glassy shells of marine diatoms, needly spicules of sea sponges, and notched and spiky pollen grains of southern beech trees. These fossils represent the remains of a warmer world, 15 million to 20 million years ago, when a few stands of stunted, shrubby trees still clung to parts of Antarctica. Back then, the West Antarctic basin held a sea rather than an ice sheet, and this detritus settled on its muddy bottom. These old marine deposits underlie much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the few boreholes drilled so far suggest that the mix of fossils differs from one place to another. Those mixes could provide clues to how the flow of rivers changes over time.

    To uncover the nuance of what’s happening in the cavern “is mind-blowingly cool,” says Christina Hulbe, a glaciologist at the University of Otago in Dunedin, New Zealand, who has studied this region of Antarctica for nearly 30 years. “That’s the outlet for a massively big river system, if you think about it.”

    By studying the water, scientists could estimate the amount of organic carbon and other nutrients flowing out of the river into the ice-covered ocean. The landscape beneath the ice sheet appears to be rich in nutrients that might sustain oases of life in an otherwise famished biological desert.

    Scientists unveil an oasis of life

    Even as the cavern penetrates farther into the Kamb Ice Stream, it does not necessarily threaten the glacier’s stability. This part of the West Antarctic coastline is not considered vulnerable, because its shallow bed shields it from the deep, warm ocean currents that are causing rapid ice loss in other regions. But subglacial rivers pour out at many other points along the coastline, including some — like Thwaites Glacier, roughly 1,100 kilometers northeast of Kamb — where the ice is retreating rapidly (SN: 3/11/23, p. 8).

    Thwaites and nearby glaciers have collectively shed over 2,000 cubic kilometers of ice since 1992. They could eventually raise global sea levels by 2.3 meters if they collapse. Remote sensing studies have documented over a dozen low, squat shield volcanoes beneath this part of the ice sheet. The elevated geothermal heat flow, even from inactive volcanoes, is thought to cause high levels of melting under the ice sheet. That melting produces large amounts of subglacial water, which could render these glaciers even more vulnerable to human-caused climate change.

    Horgan believes that what scientists learn at Kamb could improve our understanding of how subglacial rivers impact those other, rapidly changing coastlines of Antarctica.

    But the most evocative discovery made at Kamb — in purely human terms — may be the blurry, orangish animals seen swarming near the bottom of the cavern. Stevens captured some clearer images a few days later and tentatively identified them as shrimp­like marine crustaceans called amphipods. To see so many of them here, Stevens says, “we really hadn’t expected that.”

    [embedded content]
    Video from a camera lowered into a hidden cavern beneath the Kamb Ice Stream showed animals, perhaps amphipods, swimming about. They may subsist in part on nutrients transported by a subglacial river.

    Microbes like those previously found under the ice sheet in Subglacial Lake Whillans are known to eke out a living even in harsh conditions. But animals are a different matter. The deepest seafloors on Earth sit only 10 or 11 kilometers from sunlight, and animal life in those places is generally scarce. But the animals in the cavern are thriving 500 kilometers from the nearest daylight, cut off from the photosynthesis that fuels most life on Earth.

    The amphipods and their supporting ecosystem must be subsisting on some other food source. But what? Observations in the Kamb ice cavern, combined with those at two other remote boreholes drilled in recent years, offer some tantalizing hints.

    In 2015, researchers pierced the ice at another site 250 kilometers from the cavern, where the Whillans Ice Stream lifts off its bed and floats. In that location, a thin sliver of seawater, just 10 meters deep, sits beneath 760 meters of ice. A remotely operated vehicle, or ROV, sent down the hole captured images of fish and amphipods.

    John Priscu, a microbial ecologist at Montana State University in Bozeman who was involved in the drilling at the site, believes that the glacier itself is sustaining this ecosystem. The bottom 10 meters of ice is packed with mud that had frozen onto the belly of the glacier many kilometers upstream. The mud had been dragged to its present location as the glacier oozed forward, 400 meters per year. As the ROV navigated about, bits of that muddy debris constantly rained down, released as the ice’s underside slowly melted. That debris is rich in organic matter — the rotting remains of diatoms and other phytoplankton that sank to the bottom millions of years ago when the world was warmer.

    “Those amphipods are swarming to the particulate matter,” Priscu says. “They’re sensing the organic matter falling out of that basal ice.” Or perhaps they may be eating the bacteria that live on those organics.

    Because the Kamb Ice Stream is barely moving, the supply of dirty ice moving toward the sea is small. But the river flowing into the ice cavern may deliver the same subglacial nutrients that are found in dirty ice. After all, the water’s journey through a series of subglacial lakes down to the river’s mouth may take years or decades. Throughout that time, the river absorbs nutrients from the organic-rich subglacial sediments.

    Indeed, when scientists drilled into Subglacial Lake Whillans in 2013, they found its water honey-colored — chock-full of life-sustaining iron, ammonium and organics. “What these lakes are pumping out may be a concentrated source of nutrients” for ecosystems along the dark coastline, says Trista Vick-Majors, a microbial ecologist at Michigan Technological University in Houghton who was involved in the drilling at Lake Whillans. She has estimated that the subglacial rivers flowing out from under Kamb and its neighboring glaciers may deliver 56,000 tons of organic carbon and other nutrients to this section of the coastline every year.

    More recently, in December 2019, a team from New Zealand led by Horgan and Hulbe drilled through the ice just 50 kilometers from the Kamb cavern, in a place where the Kamb Ice Stream floats on the ocean. There’s no dirty ice there and no nearby river outlets. The area resembled a famished seafloor desert; it was populated by single-celled microbes with little to eat, and few signs of animals were seen — only a few burrowing traces on the muddy bottom. Priscu sees this location as an exception that proves the point: Subglacial nutrients are the crucial energy source in this dark world under the floating ice, whether they are dragged forward on the undersides of glaciers or spilled out through subglacial rivers.

    The mud and water samples collected from the Kamb ice cavern may provide a new opportunity to test that theory. Craig Cary, a microbial ecologist at the University of Waikato in New Zealand, is analyzing DNA from those samples. He hopes to determine whether the microbes in the cavern belong to taxonomic groups that are known to subsist on ammonium, methane, hydrogen or other sources of chemical energy that originate from the subglacial sediments. That might reveal whether such sources support enough microbial growth to feed the animals observed there.

    The team also needs to measure the flow rate of the subglacial river that spills into the cavern, since that determines the nutrient supply. Stevens continues to monitor this thanks to a set of instruments left behind in the cavern.

    At the end of the trip, scientists including Craig Stewart (right) and Andrew Mullen (center) lowered instruments (a current meter is shown) into the cavern so they could continue monitoring it from afar.C. STEVENS/NIWA

    As people were packing up camp on January 11, 2022, workers pumped more hot water into the borehole, widening it to more than 35 centimeters — and creating a dangerous pitfall. Stevens and his colleagues donned climbing harnesses, clipped into safety ropes and approached the hole one last time. They lowered a series of cylinders the size of caulking guns down the hole. These devices continue to measure the temperature, salinity and water currents inside the cavern, sending the data 500 meters up a cable to a transmitter that beams it home via satellite once a day. That data will reveal how the river’s flow changes over time. With luck, the instruments might even detect a subglacial flood gushing through.

    “That would just be outstanding,” Horgan says. For many years, he had to content himself with seeing these rivers and lakes dimly, through the outlines of water on radar and satellite images. This is “one of the first times we’ve got to stand at a river mouth and observe it.” More

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    A moon-forming cataclysm could have also triggered Earth’s plate tectonics

    THE WOODLANDS, TEXAS — Vestiges of a moon-forming cataclysm could have kick-started plate tectonics on Earth.

    The leading explanation for the origin of the moon proposes that a Mars-sized planet, dubbed Theia, struck the nascent Earth, ejecting a cloud of debris into space that later coalesced into a satellite (SN: 3/2/18). New computer simulations suggest that purported remains of Theia deep inside the planet could have also triggered the onset of subduction, a hallmark of modern plate tectonics, geodynamicist Qian Yuan of Caltech reported March 13 at the Lunar and Planetary Science Conference.

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    The story offers a cohesive explanation for how Earth gained both its moon and its moving tectonic plates, and it could aid in the search for other Earthlike worlds. But others caution that it’s much too early to say that this is, in fact, what happened.

    Of all the worlds yet discovered, ours is the only one confirmed to have plate tectonics (SN: 1/13/21). For billions of years, Earth’s creeping plates have spread, collided and plunged beneath one another, birthing and splitting continents, uplifting mountain ranges and widening oceans (SN: 4/22/20, SN: 1/11/17). But all this reshaping has also erased most of the clues to the planet’s early history, including how and when plate tectonics first began.

    Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain the initiation of subduction, a tectonic process in which one plate slides under another (SN: 5/2/22; SN: 6/5/19; SN: 1/2/18). Yuan and his colleagues chose to focus on two continent-sized blobs of material in Earth’s lower mantle known as large low-shear velocity provinces (SN: 5/12/16). These are regions through which seismic waves are known to move anomalously slow. Researchers had previously proposed these regions could have formed from old, subducted plates. But in 2021, Yuan and colleagues alternatively proposed that the mysterious masses could be the dense, sunken remnants of Theia.

    Building off that previous work, the researchers used computers to simulate how Theia’s impact, and its lingering remains, would impact the flow of rock inside the Earth.

    They found that once these hot alien blobs had sunk to the bottom of the mantle, they could have compelled large plumes of warm rock to upwell and wedge into Earth’s rigid outer layer. As upwelling continued to feed into the risen plumes, they would have ballooned and pushed slabs of Earth’s surface beneath them, triggering subduction about 200 million years after the moon formed.

    While the simulations suggest the large low-shear velocity provinces could have had a hand in starting subduction, it’s not yet clear whether these masses came from Theia. “The features … are a fairly recent discovery,” says geodynamicist Laurent Montési of the University of Maryland in College Park. “They’re very fascinating structures, with a very unknown origin.” As such, he says, it’s too early to say that Theia triggered plate tectonics.

    “It’s provoking. This material down there is something special,” Montési says of the large low-shear velocity provinces. “But whether it has to be originally extraterrestrial, I don’t think the case is made.”

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    However, if confirmed, the explanation could have implications that reach beyond our solar system. “If you have a large moon, you likely have a large impactor,” Yuan said. Scientists have yet to confirm the discovery of such an exomoon (SN: 4/30/19). But keeping an eye out, Yuan said, could help us uncover another world as tectonically active as our own. More

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    Rare earth mining may be key to our renewable energy future. But at what cost?

    In spring 1949, three prospectors armed with Geiger counters set out to hunt for treasure in the arid mountains of southern Nevada and southeastern California.

    In the previous century, those mountains yielded gold, silver, copper and cobalt. But the men were looking for a different kind of treasure: uranium. The world was emerging from World War II and careening into the Cold War. The United States needed uranium to build its nuclear weapons arsenal. Mining homegrown sources became a matter of national security.

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    After weeks of searching, the trio hit what they thought was pay dirt. Their instruments detected intense radioactivity in brownish-red veins of ore exposed in a rocky outcrop within California’s Clark Mountain Range. But instead of uranium, the brownish-red stuff turned out to be bastnaesite, a mineral bearing fluorine, carbon and 17 curious elements known collectively as rare earths. Traces of radioactive thorium, also in the ore, had set the Geiger counters pinging.

    As disappointing as that must have been, the bastnaesite still held value, and the prospectors sold their claim to the Molybdenum Corporation of America, later called Molycorp. The company was interested in mining the rare earths. During the mid-20th century, rare earth elements were becoming useful in a variety of ways: Cerium, for example, was the basis for a glass-polishing powder and europium lent luminescence to recently invented color television screens and fluorescent lamps.

    For the next few decades, the site, later dubbed Mountain Pass mine, was the world’s top source for rare earth elements, until two pressures became too much. By the late 1980s, China was intensively mining its own rare earths — and selling them at lower prices. And a series of toxic waste spills at Mountain Pass brought production at the struggling mine to a halt in 2002.

    But that wasn’t the end of the story. The green-tech revolution of the 21st century brought new attention to Mountain Pass, which later reopened and remains the only U.S. mine for rare earths.

    Rare earths are now integral to the manufacture of many carbon-neutral technologies — plus a whole host of tools that move the modern world. These elements are the building blocks of small, super­efficient permanent magnets that keep smartphones buzzing, wind turbines spinning, electric vehicles zooming and more.

    Mining U.S. sources of rare earth elements, President Joe Biden’s administration stated in February 2021, is a matter of national security.

    Rare earths are not actually rare on Earth, but they tend to be scattered throughout the crust at low concentrations. And the ore alone is worth relatively little without the complex, often environmentally hazardous processing involved in converting the ore into a usable form, says Julie Klinger, a geographer at the University of Delaware in Newark. As a result, the rare earth mining industry is wrestling with a legacy of environmental problems.

    Rare earths are mined by digging vast open pits in the ground, which can contaminate the environment and disrupt ecosystems. When poorly regulated, mining can produce wastewater ponds filled with acids, heavy metals and radioactive material that might leak into groundwater. Processing the raw ore into a form useful to make magnets and other tech is a lengthy effort that takes large amounts of water and potentially toxic chemicals, and produces voluminous waste.

    “We need rare earth elements … to help us with the transition to a climate-safe future,” says Michele Bustamante, a sustainability researcher at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington, D.C. Yet “everything that we do when we’re mining is impactful environmentally,” Bustamante says.

    But there are ways to reduce mining’s footprint, says Thomas Lograsso, a metallurgist at the Ames National Laboratory in Iowa and the director of the Critical Materials Institute, a Department of Energy research center. Researchers are investigating everything from reducing the amount of waste produced during the ore processing to improving the efficiency of rare earth element separation, which can also cut down on the amount of toxic waste. Scientists are also testing alternatives to mining, such as recycling rare earths from old electronics or recovering them from coal waste.

    Much of this research is in partnership with the mining industry, whose buy-in is key, Lograsso says. Mining companies have to be willing to invest in making changes. “We want to make sure that the science and innovations that we do are driven by industry needs, so that we’re not here developing solutions that nobody really wants,” he says.

    Klinger says she’s cautiously optimistic that the rare earth mining industry can become less polluting and more sustainable, if such solutions are widely adopted. “A lot of gains come from the low-hanging fruit,” she says. Even basic hardware upgrades to improve insulation can reduce the fuel required to reach the high temperatures needed for some processing. “You do what you [can].”

    The environmental impact of rare earth mining

    Between the jagged peaks of California’s Clark range and the Nevada border sits a broad, flat, shimmering valley known as the Ivanpah Dry Lake. Some 8,000 years ago, the valley held water year-round. Today, like many such playas in the Mojave Desert, the lake is ephemeral, winking into appearance only after an intense rain and flash flooding. It’s a beautiful, stark place, home to endangered desert tortoises and rare desert plants like Mojave milkweed.

    From about 1984 to 1998, the Ivanpah Dry Lake was also a holding pen for wastewater piped in from Mountain Pass. The wastewater was a by-product of chemical processing to concentrate the rare earth elements in the mined rock, making it more marketable to companies that could then extract those elements to make specific products. Via a buried pipeline, the mine sent wastewater to evaporation ponds about 23 kilometers away, in and around the dry lake bed.

    The pipeline repeatedly ruptured over the years. At least 60 separate spills dumped an estimated 2,000 metric tons of wastewater containing radioactive thorium into the valley. Federal officials feared that local residents and visitors to the nearby Mojave National Preserve might be at risk of exposure to that thorium, which could lead to increased risk of lung, pancreatic and other cancers.

    Unocal Corporation, which had acquired Molycorp in 1977, was ordered to clean up the spill in 1997, and the company paid over $1.4 million in fines and settlements. Chemical processing of the raw ore ground to a halt. Mining operations stopped shortly afterward.

    Half a world away, another environmental disaster was unfolding. The vast majority — between 80 and 90 percent — of rare earth elements on the market since the 1990s have come from China. One site alone, the massive Bayan Obo mine in Inner Mongolia, accounted for 45 percent of rare earth production in 2019.

    Bayan Obo spans some 4,800 hectares, about half the size of Florida’s Walt Disney World resort. It is also one of the most heavily polluted places on Earth. Clearing the land to dig for ore meant removing vegetation in an area already prone to desertification, allowing the Gobi Desert to creep southward.

    In 2010, officials in the nearby city of Baotou noted that radioactive, arsenic- and fluorine-containing mine waste, or tailings, was being dumped on farmland and into local water supplies, as well as into the nearby Yellow River. The air was polluted by fumes and toxic dust that reduced visibility. Residents complained of nausea, dizziness, migraines and arthritis. Some had skin lesions and discolored teeth, signs of prolonged exposure to arsenic; others exhibited signs of brittle bones, indications of skeletal fluorosis, Klinger says.

    The country’s rare earth industry was causing “severe damage to the ecological environment,” China’s State Council wrote in 2010. The release of heavy metals and other pollutants during mining led to “the destruction of vegetation and pollution of surface water, groundwater and farmland.” The “excessive rare earth mining,” the council wrote, led to landslides and clogged rivers.

    Faced with these mounting environmental disasters, as well as fears that it was depleting its rare earth resources too rapidly, China slashed its export of the elements in 2010 by 40 percent. The new limits sent prices soaring and kicked off concern around the globe that China had too tight of a stranglehold on these must-have elements. That, in turn, sparked investment in rare earth mining elsewhere.

    In 2010, there were few other places mining rare earths, with only minimal production from India, Brazil and Malaysia. A new mine in remote Western Australia came online in 2011, owned by mining company Lynas. The company dug into fossilized lava preserved within an ancient volcano called Mount Weld.

    Mount Weld didn’t have anywhere near the same sort of environmental impact seen in China: Its location was too remote and the mine was just a fraction of the size of Bayan Obo, according to Saleem Ali, an environmental planner at the University of Delaware. The United States, meanwhile, was eager to once again have its own source of rare earths — and Mountain Pass was still the best prospect.

    The Bayan Obo mine (shown) in China’s Inner Mongolia region was responsible for nearly half of the world’s rare earth production in 2019. Mining there has taken a heavy toll on the local residents and the environment.WU CHANGQING/VCG VIA GETTY IMAGES

    Mountain Pass mine gets revived

    After the Ivanpah Dry Lake mess, the Mountain Pass mine changed hands again. Chevron purchased it in 2005, but did not resume operations. Then, in 2008, a newly formed company called Molycorp Minerals purchased the mine with ambitious plans to create a complete rare earth supply chain in the United States.

    The goal was not just mining and processing ore, but also separating out the desirable elements and even manufacturing them into magnets. Currently, the separations and magnet manufacturing are done overseas, mostly in China. The company also proposed a plan to avoid spilling wastewater into nearby fragile habitats. Molycorp resumed mining, and introduced a “dry tailings” process — a method to squeeze 85 percent of the water out of its mine waste, forming a thick paste. The company would then store the immobilized, pasty residue in lined pits on its own land and recycle the water back into the facility.

    Unfortunately, Molycorp “was an epic debacle” from a business perspective, says Matt Sloustcher, senior vice president of communications and policy at MP Materials, current owner of Mountain Pass mine. Mismanagement ultimately led Molycorp to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2015. MP Materials bought the mine in 2017 and resumed mining later that year. By 2022, Mountain Pass mine was producing 15 percent of the world’s rare earths.

    MP Materials, too, has an ambitious agenda with plans to create a complete supply chain. And the company is determined not to repeat the mistakes of its predecessors. “We have a world-class … unbelievable deposit, an untapped potential,” says Michael Rosenthal, MP Materials’ chief operating officer. “We want to support a robust and diverse U.S. supply chain, be the magnetics champion in the U.S.”

    The challenges of separating rare earths

    On a hot morning in August, Sloustcher stands at the edge of the Mountain Pass mine, a giant hole in the ground, 800 meters across and up to 183 meters deep, big enough to be visible from space. It’s an impressive sight, and a good vantage point from which to describe a vision for the future. He points out the various buildings: where the ore is crushed and ground, where the ground rocks are chemically treated to slough off as much non–rare earth material as possible, and where the water is squeezed from that waste and the waste is placed into lined ponds.

    The end result is a highly concentrated rare earth oxide ore — still nowhere near the magnet-making stage. But the company has a three-stage plan “to restore the full rare earth supply to the United States,” from “mine to magnet,” Rosenthal says. Stage 1, begun in 2017, was to restart mining, crushing and concentrating the ore. Stage 2 will culminate in the chemical separation of the rare earth elements. And stage 3 will be magnet production, he says.

    Since coming online in 2017, MP Materials has shipped its concentrated ore to China for the next steps, including the arduous, hazardous process of separating the elements from one another. But in November, the company announced to investors that it had begun the preliminary steps for stage 2, a “major milestone” on the way to realizing its mine-to-magnet ambitions.

    With investments from the U.S. Department of Defense, the company is building two separations facilities. One plant will pull out lighter rare earth elements — those with smaller atomic numbers, including neodymium and praseodymium, both of which are key ingredients in the permanent magnets that power electric vehicles and many consumer electronics. MP Materials has additional grant money from the DOD to design and build a second processing plant to split apart the heavier rare earth elements such as dysprosium, also an ingredient in magnets, and yttrium, used to make superconductors and lasers.

    Like stage 2, stage 3 is already under way. In 2022, the company broke ground in Fort Worth, Texas, for a facility to produce neodymium magnets. And it inked a deal with General Motors to supply those magnets for electric vehicle motors.

    But separating the elements comes with its own set of environmental concerns.

    The process is difficult and leads to lots of waste. Rare earth elements are extremely similar chemically, which means they tend to stick together. Forcing them apart requires multiple sequential steps and a variety of powerful solvents to separate them one by one. Caustic sodium hydroxide causes cerium to drop out of the mix, for example. Other steps involve solutions containing organic molecules called ligands, which have a powerful thirst for metal atoms. The ligands can selectively bind to particular rare earth elements and pull them out of the mix.

    But one of the biggest issues plaguing this extraction process is its inefficiency, says Santa Jansone-Popova, an organic chemist at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. The scavenging of these metals is slow and imperfect, and companies have to go through a lot of extraction steps to get a sufficiently marketable amount of the elements. With the current chemical methods, “you need many, many, many stages in order to achieve the desired separation,” Jansone-Popova says. That makes the whole process “more complex, more expensive, and [it] produces more waste.”

    Under the aegis of the DOE’s Critical Materials Institute, Jansone-Popova and her colleagues have been hunting for a way to make the process more efficient, eliminating many of those steps. In 2022, the researchers identified a ligand that they say is much more efficient at snagging certain rare earths than the ligands now used in the industry. Industry partners are on board to try out the new process this year, she says.

    In addition to concerns about heavy metals and other toxic materials in the waste, there are lingering worries about the potential impacts of radioactivity on human health. The trouble is that there is still only limited epidemiological evidence of the impact of rare earth mining on human and environmental health, according to Ali, and much of that evidence is related to the toxicity of heavy metals such as arsenic. It’s also not clear, he says, how much of the concerns over radioactive waste are scientifically supported, due to the low concentration of radioactive elements in mined rare earths.

    Such concerns get international attention, however. In 2019, protests erupted in Malaysia over what activists called “a mountain of toxic waste,” about 1.5 million metric tons, produced by a rare earth separation facility near the Malaysian city of Kuantan. The facility is owned by Lynas, which ships its rare earth ore from Australia’s Mount Weld to the site. To dissolve the rare earths, the ore is cooked with sulfuric acid and then diluted with water. The residue that’s left behind can contain traces of radioactive thorium.

    Australian company Lynas built a plant near Kuantan, Malaysia, (shown in 2012) to separate and process the rare earth oxide ore mined at Mount Weld in Western Australia. Local protests erupted in 2019 over how the company disposes of its thorium-laced waste.GOH SENG CHONG/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

    Lynas had no permanent storage for the waste, piling it up in hills near Kuantan instead. But the alarm over the potential radioactivity in those hills may be exaggerated, experts say. Lynas reports that workers at the site are exposed to less than 1.05 millisieverts per year, far below the radiation exposure threshold for workers of 20 millisieverts set by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

    “There’s a lot of misinformation about by­products such as thorium.… The thorium from rare earth processing is actually very low-level radiation,” Ali says. “As someone who has been a committed environmentalist, I feel right now that there’s not much science-based decision making on these things.”

    Given the concerns over new mining, environmental think tanks like the World Resources Institute have been calling for more recycling of existing rare earth materials to reduce the need for new mining and processing.

    “The path to the future has to do with getting the most out of what we take out of the ground,” says Bustamante, of the NRDC. “Ultimately the biggest lever for change is not in the mining itself, but in the manufacturing, and what we do with those materials at the end of life.”

    That means using mined resources as efficiently as possible, but also recycling rare earths out of already existing materials. Getting more out of these materials can reduce the overall environmental impacts of the mining itself, she adds.

    That is a worthwhile goal, but recycling isn’t a silver bullet, Ali says. For one thing, there aren’t enough spent rare earth–laden batteries and other materials available at the moment for recycling. “Some mining will be necessary, [because] right now we don’t have the stock.” And that supply problem, he adds, will only grow as demand increases. More

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    Particles from space provide a new look inside cyclones

    Particles raining down from space offer 3-D views inside swirling tropical storms.

    Muons created from cosmic rays that smash into Earth’s upper atmosphere have revealed the inner workings of cyclones over Japan, researchers report October 6 in Scientific Reports. The new imaging approach could lead to a better understanding of storms, the researchers say, and offer another tool to help meteorologists forecast the weather.

    “Cosmic rays are sustainable natural resources that can be used everywhere on this planet for 24 hours [a day],” says geophysicist Hiroyuki Tanaka of the University of Tokyo, so it’s just a matter of taking advantage of them.

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    Muons offer a glimpse inside storms because variations in air pressure and density change the number of particles that make it through a tempest. By counting how many muons arrived at a detector on the ground in Kagoshima, Japan as cyclones moved past, Tanaka and colleagues produced rough 3-D maps of the density of air inside the storms. The approach gave the team an inside look at the low-pressure regions at the centers rotating storm systems.

    Muons, which are similar to electrons but roughly 200 times as massive, can scatter off molecules in the air. They’re also unstable, which means they break down into electrons and other particles called neutrinos given enough time. As air pressure increases, so does its density. That, in turn, increases the chances that a muon born from a cosmic ray will be bumped off its path on the way toward a detector or get slowed enough that it breaks down before it makes it all the way through the atmosphere.

    For every 1 percent increase in air pressure, Tanaka and colleagues say, the number of muons that survive passage from the upper atmosphere to the ground decreases by about 2 percent.

    Fewer muons make it through the high-pressure portions at the edges of a swirling cyclone (yellow and green in this muograph) than through the low-pressure regions in the center (red), providing a map of conditions inside the storm (illustrated outline). The darkened portion was outside the viewing angle of the muon detector.©2022 H.K.M. Tanaka

    Tanaka has previously used muons from cosmic rays to look inside volcanoes, and he suspects that others have used the particles to study weather (SN: 4/22/22). But, he says, this appears to be the first time that anyone has made 3-D muon scans of the insides of a storm.

    “It is an interesting approach,” says meteorologist Frank Marks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, who wasn’t involved in the research.

    He doesn’t expect muon imaging to replace conventional meteorological measurements, but it’s another tool that scientists could use. “[It] would be complementary to our existing techniques to provide 3-D mapping of the storms with our other traditional observing systems, like satellites and radar.” More

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    Landslides shaped a hidden landscape within Yellowstone

    DENVER — A hidden landscape riddled with landslides is coming into focus in Yellowstone National Park, thanks to a laser-equipped airplane.

    Scientists of yore crisscrossed Yellowstone on foot and studied aerial photographs to better understand America’s first national park. But today researchers have a massive new digital dataset at their fingertips that’s shedding new light on this nearly 1-million-hectare natural wonderland.

    These observations of Yellowstone have allowed a pair of researchers to pinpoint over 1,000 landslides within and near the park, hundreds of which had not been mapped before, the duo reported October 9 at the Geological Society of America Connects 2022 meeting. Most of these landslides likely occurred thousands of years ago, but some are still moving.

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    Mapping Yellowstone’s landslides is important because they can cripple infrastructure like roadways and bridges. The millions of visitors that explore the park each year access Yellowstone through just a handful of entrance roads, one of which recently closed for months following intense flooding.

    In 2020, a small aircraft flew a few hundred meters above the otherworldly landscape of Yellowstone. But it wasn’t ferrying tourists eager for up close views of the park’s famous wolves or hydrothermal vents (SN: 7/21/20, SN: 1/11/21). Instead, the plane carried a downward-pointing laser that fired pulses of infrared light at the ground. By measuring the timing of pulses that hit the ground and reflected back toward the aircraft, researchers reconstructed the precise topography of the landscape.

    Such “light detection and ranging,” or lidar, data reveal details that often remain hidden to the eye. “We’re able to see the surface of the ground as if there’s no vegetation,” says Kyra Bornong, a geoscientist at Idaho State University in Pocatello. Similar lidar observations have been used to pinpoint pre-Columbian settlements deep within the Amazon jungle (SN: 5/25/22).

    The Yellowstone lidar data were collected as part of the 3D Elevation Program, an ongoing project spearheaded by the United States Geological Survey to map the entirety of the United States using lidar.

    Bornong and geomorphologist Ben Crosby analyzed the Yellowstone data — which resolve details as small as about one meter — to home in on landslides. The team searched for places where the landscape changed from looking relatively smooth to looking jumbled, evidence that soil and rocks had once been on the move. “It’s a pattern-recognition game,” says Crosby, also of Idaho State University. “You’re looking for this contrast between the lumpy stuff and the smooth stuff.”

    The researchers spotted more than 1,000 landslides across Yellowstone, most of which were clustered near the periphery of the park. That makes sense given the geography of Yellowstone’s interior, says Lyman Persico, a geomorphologist at Whitman College in Walla Walla, Wash., who was not involved in the research. The park sits atop a supervolcano, whose previous eruptions blanketed much of the park in lava (SN: 1/2/18). “You’re sitting in the middle of the Yellowstone caldera, where everything is flat,” says Persico.

    But steep terrain also abounds in the national park, and there’s infrastructure in many of those landslide-prone areas. In several places, the team found that roads had been built over landslide debris. One example is Highway 191, which skirts the western edge of Yellowstone.

    An aerial image of U.S. Highway 191 near Yellowstone shows barely perceptible signs of a long-ago landslide. But laser mapping reveals the structure and extent of the landslide in much greater detail (use the slider to compare images). It’s one of more than 1,000 landslides uncovered by new maps.

    It’s worth keeping an eye on this highway since it funnels significant amounts of traffic through regions apt to experience landslides, Bornong says. “It’s one of the busiest roads in Montana.”

    There’s plenty more to learn from this novel look at Yellowstone, Crosby says. Lidar data can shed light on geologic processes like volcanic and tectonic activity, both of which Yellowstone has in spades. “It’s a transformative tool,” he says. More

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    Jacky Austermann looks to the solid earth for clues to sea level rise

    It’s no revelation that sea levels are rising. Rising temperatures brought on by human-caused climate change are melting ice sheets and expanding ocean water. What’s happening inside Earth will also shape future shorelines. Jacky Austermann is trying to understand those inner dynamics.

    A geophysicist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Austermann didn’t always know she would end up studying climate. Her fascination with math from a young age coupled with her love of nature and the outdoors — she grew up hiking in the Alps — led her to study physics as an undergraduate, and later geophysics.

    As Austermann dug deeper into Earth’s geosystems, she learned just how much the movement of hot rock in the mantle influences life on the surface. “I got really interested in this entire interplay of the solid earth and the oceans and the climate,” she says.

    Big goal

    Much of Austermann’s work focuses on how that interplay influences changes in sea level. The global average sea level has risen more than 20 centimeters since 1880, and the yearly rise is increasing. But shifts in local sea level can vary, with those levels rising or falling along different shorelines, Austermann says, and the solid earth plays a role.

    “We think about sea level change generally as ‘ice is melting, so sea level is rising.’ But there’s a lot more nuance to it,” she says. “A lot of sea level change is driven by land motion.” 

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    Understanding that nuance could lead to more accurate climate models for predicting sea level rise in the future. Such work should help inform practical solutions for communities in at-risk coastal areas.

    So Austermann is building computer models that reconstruct sea level changes over the last few million years. Her models incorporate data on how the creeping churning of the mantle and other geologic phenomena have altered land and sea elevation, particularly during interglacial periods when Earth’s temperatures were a few degrees higher than they are today.

    Standout research

    Previous studies had suggested that this churning, known as mantle convection, sculpted Earth’s surface millions of years ago. “It pushes the surface up where hot material wells up,” Austermann says. “And it also drags [the surface] down where cold material sinks back into the mantle.”

    In 2015, Austermann and colleagues were the first to show that mantle-induced topographic changes influenced the melting of Antarctic ice over the last 3 million years. Near the ice sheet’s edges, ice retreated more quickly in areas where the land surface was lower due to convection.

    What’s more, mantle convection is affecting land surfaces even on relatively short time scales. Since the last interglacial period, around 130,000 to 115,000 years ago, mantle convection has warped ancient shorelines by as much as several meters, her team reported in Science Advances in 2017.  

    Jacky Austermann builds computer models that reconstruct sea level changes over the last few million years. The work could improve models that forecast the future.Bill Menke

    The growing and melting of ice sheets can deform the solid earth too, Austermann says. As land sinks under the weight of accumulating ice, local sea levels rise. And as land uplifts where the ice melts, water falls. This effect, as well as how the ice sheet tugs on the water around it, is shifting local sea levels around the globe today, she says, making it very relevant to coastal areas planning their defenses in the current climate crisis.

    Understanding these geologic processes can help improve models of past sea level rise. Austermann’s team is gathering more data from the field, scouring the coasts of Caribbean islands for clues to what areas were once near or below sea level. Such clues include fossilized corals and water ripples etched in stone, as well as tiny chutes in rocks that indicate air bubbles once rose through sand on ancient beaches. The work is “really fun,” Austermann says. “It’s essentially like a scavenger hunt.”

    Her efforts put the solid earth at the forefront of the study of sea level changes, says Douglas Wiens, a seismologist at Washington University in St. Louis. Before, “a lot of those factors were kind of ignored.” What’s most remarkable is her ability “to span what we normally consider to be several different disciplines and bring them together to solve the sea level problem,” he says.

    Building community

    Austermann says the most enjoyable part of her job is working with her students and postdocs. More than writing the next big paper, she wants to cultivate a happy, healthy and motivated research group. “It’s really rewarding to see them grow academically, scientifically, come up with their own ideas … and also help each other out.”

    Roger Creel, a Ph.D. student in Austermann’s group and the first to join her lab, treasures Austermann’s mentorship. She offers realistic, clear and fluid expectations, gives prompt and thoughtful feedback and meets for regular check-ins, he says. “Sometimes I think of it like water-skiing, and Jacky’s the boat.”

    For Oana Dumitru, a postdoc in the group, one aspect of that valued mentorship came in the form of a gentle push to write and submit a grant proposal on her own. “I thought I was not ready for it, but she was like, you’ve got to try,” Dumitru says.

    Austermann prioritizes her group’s well-being, which fosters collaboration, Creel and Dumitru say. That sense of inclusion, support and community “is the groundwork for having an environment where great ideas can blossom,” Austermann says.

    Want to nominate someone for the next SN 10 list? Send their name, affiliation and a few sentences about them and their work to sn10@sciencenews.org. More

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    The Tonga eruption may have spawned a tsunami as tall as the Statue of Liberty

    The massive Tonga eruption generated a set of planet-circling tsunamis that may have started out as a single mound of water roughly the height of the Statue of Liberty.

    What’s more, the explosive eruption triggered an immense atmospheric shock wave that spawned a second set of especially fast-moving tsunamis, a rare phenomenon that can complicate early warnings for these oft-destructive waves, researchers report in the October Ocean Engineering.

    As the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai undersea volcano erupted in the South Pacific in January, it displaced a large volume of water upward, says Mohammad Heidarzadeh, a civil engineer at the University of Bath in England (SN: 1/21/22). The water in that colossal mound later “ran downhill,” as fluids tend to do, to generate the initial set of tsunamis.

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    To estimate the original size of the mound, Heidarzadeh and his team used computer simulations, as well as data from deep-ocean instruments and coastal tide gauges within about 1,500 kilometers of the eruption, many of them in or near New Zealand. The arrival times of tsunami waves, as well as their sizes, at those locations were key pieces of data, Heidarzadeh says.

    The team analyzed nine possibilities for the initial wave, each of which was shaped like a baseball pitcher’s mound and had a distinct height and diameter. The best fit to the real-world data came from a mound of water a whopping 90 meters tall and 12 kilometers in diameter, the researchers report.

    That initial wave would have contained an estimated 6.6 cubic kilometers of water. “This was a really large tsunami,” Heidarzadeh says.

    Despite starting out about nine times as tall as the tsunami that devastated the Tohoku region of Japan in 2011, the Tongan tsunamis killed only five people and caused about $90 million in damage, largely because of their remote source (SN: 2/10/12).

    Another unusual aspect of the Tongan eruption is the second set of tsunamis generated by a strong atmospheric pressure wave.

    That pressure pulse resulted from a steam explosion that occurred when a large volume of seawater infiltrated the hot magma chamber beneath the erupting volcano. As the pressure wave raced across the ocean’s surface at speeds exceeding 300 meters per second, it pushed water ahead of it, creating tsunamis, Heidarzadeh explains.

    The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano also triggered an atmospheric pressure wave that in turn generated tsunamis that traveled quicker than expected.NASA Earth Observatory

    Along many coastlines, including some in the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea, these pressure wave–generated tsunamis arrived hours ahead of the gravity-driven waves spreading from the 90-meter-tall mound of water. Gravity-driven tsunami waves typically travel across the deepest parts of the ocean, far from continents, at speeds between 100 and 220 meters per second. When the waves reach shallow waters near shore, the waves slow, water stacks up and then strikes shore, where destruction occurs.

    Pressure wave–generated tsunamis have been reported for only one other volcanic eruption: the 1883 eruption of Krakatau in Indonesia (SN: 8/27/83).

    Those quicker-than-expected arrival times — plus the fact that the pressure-wave tsunamis for the Tongan eruption were comparable in size with the gravity-driven ones — could complicate early warnings for these tsunamis. That’s concerning, Heiderzadeh says.

    One way to address the issue would be to install instruments that measure atmospheric pressure with the deep-sea equipment already in place to detect tsunamis, says Hermann Fritz, a tsunami scientist at Georgia Tech in Atlanta.

    With that setup, scientists would be able to discern if a passing tsunami is associated with a pressure pulse, thus providing a clue in real time about how fast the tsunami wave might be traveling. More